Candidate selection now a complex business

Something akin to Lanigan's Ball has been going on in some constituencies in recent weeks as sitting TDs or new candidates have…

Something akin to Lanigan's Ball has been going on in some constituencies in recent weeks as sitting TDs or new candidates have stepped in or stepped out of the 2007 electoral dance.

The process of candidate selection in this country is getting increasingly sophisticated. Gone are the days when candidates were selected just before or just after an election was called.

Gone too are the days when the decision-making about who should be on the ticket was left to the vagaries of local intra-party rivalries or predicated on the hunches of local party bosses. All of the parties are now selecting most of their candidates months and sometimes even years in advance. The larger parties are spending thousands of euro commissioning professionally conducted constituency polls - sometimes even before candidates are selected - to test which of their political hopefuls are most likely to garner support among the wider electorate.

While a majority of candidates are still selected by constituency conventions of some sort, even then the candidate selection is shaped increasingly by the views and preferences of senior national party politicians and strategists. Armed with empirical data, with considerable formal powers under party rules and using their informal powers of political persuasion, the national leaderships of the parties are now exerting the decisive influence in most constituencies on the timing of conventions, the number of candidates to be run, and ultimately on the line-up.

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The parties are obviously paying particular attention to those constituencies which are marginal - either because they were closely won the last time out, because of the redrawing of constituency boundaries, or because the retirement of sitting TDs has rendered seats vulnerable since. Even after all this planning, however, there are always a number of places where finalising the ticket proves particularly intractable.

Among those constituencies causing headaches for Fianna Fáil headquarters are the high profile difficulties with finalising their line-ups in Donegal North East and Wicklow. What has been interesting about recent developments in both constituencies is not only have they affected Fianna Fáil's prospects of holding the seats the party has in each constituency, but they are also likely to reduce the size of the cohort of the "Fianna Fáil gene pool" Independents (Niall Blaney and Mildred Fox in these instances) on whom Bertie Ahern might need to rely in the next Dáil.

The three-seater Donegal North East constituency has been a peculiarity in the last two elections in that it returned three TDs, all of whom supported Ahern in the subsequent vote for Taoiseach. In 2002, the seats were won by Fianna Fáil's Cecilia Keaveney and Jim McDaid and by Independent Fianna Fáil's Niall Blaney.

The merger of the Blaneyite organisation with Fianna Fáil last July arose from recognition that it was unlikely that, either separately or combined, Fianna Fáil and Independent Fianna Fáil could win three seats again.

The merger came only after Jim McDaid announced he was retiring from politics at the next election. However, having stepped out last April, McDaid is now stepping back in, ostensibly because his Letterkenny-based organisation feels that otherwise it would not be represented on the ticket.

On Wednesday last, Bertie Ahern sought to stave off an open revolt in the party's organisation in the constituency and avoid a rancorous convention by declaring that the party will run three candidates, with both McDaid and Blaney joining Keaveney on the ticket. Those Ahern watchers of the "most devious and most cunning" school will see this as a manoeuvre by the Taoiseach designed to call McDaid's bluff.

If not handled carefully tensions between the Blaneyites and original Fianna Fáilers could actually cost the party both the McDaid and the Blaney seats - two seats which Ahern may need if the Dáil arithmetic after the election is as tight as yesterday's TNS mrbi polls might suggest.

The five-seat Wicklow constituency is another place where three of those elected in 2002 went on to vote for Ahern for Taoiseach, namely Fianna Fáil's Dick Roche and Joe Jacob and the Independent Fox. Recent developments in that constituency will also be upsetting for Ahern.

Fox's announcement that she will not contest the next election has stunned many. Her decision speaks volumes about how difficult Irish national politics still is for women with young families. The Fox Independent organisation will probably run an alternative candidate but, as of now, it is likely that Mildred's premature retirement will be to the benefit of either Labour or the Greens.

Indeed, there is a risk that the pro-Bertie cohort could be reduced from three to one in this constituency since the retirement of one of the party's sitting TDs, Jacob, also leaves the second Fianna Fáil seat vulnerable.

Although it is some considerable time since Jacob announced that he too will not contest the next election, the party has been unable to decide either the number or identity of candidates to run with Minister for the Environment Dick Roche. Headquarters has announced that here too there will be no convention and that national executive will be selecting the candidate or candidates - a task which will prove all the more complicated with Fox not in the race.

Among those constituencies causing headaches recently for Fine Gael headquarters is Galway West, where the party's sitting Dáil deputy Padraig McCormack is retiring.

Last week saw the surprise announcement from Brian Walsh that he was resigning from the party ticket and would not contest the election after all.

The announcement by Fine Gael's Dublin MEP Gay Mitchell is also significant. Mitchell has been one of the party's strongest vote getters ever in the capital and his departure from the national stage leaves the party's ticket in Dublin South Central in disarray.

It can also be seen as an indication that maybe Mitchell, at least, does not think that any Fine Gael ministerial Mercs will be going after the election.