Labour’s disastrous local elections in the UK look like putting paid to Keir Starmer’s premiership. With Fianna Fáil seemingly heading for a drubbing in next week’s byelections, are there similar implications for Micheál Martin’s leadership?
While an immediate threat to his position is unlikely, a really bad result for Fianna Fáil will have implications for how long he remains party leader and Taoiseach. The prospect of the Fianna Fáil candidates trailing in not only behind Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, but behind Labour, the Social Democrats and some Independents, is bound to generate soul searching in the party about its future direction.
The party’s vote in Dublin Central has collapsed since the heady days of 2007 when it won 44.5 per cent, with Bertie Ahern hoovering up support. In the 2024 general election, it obtained a paltry 7 per cent. It might be lucky to get even that share of the vote next Friday.
In Galway West, the drop from 37 per cent in 2007 to 17 per cent in 2024 was not as precipitous, but the indications are that it will be down again, possibly dramatically, next Friday.
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When Martin first took over as party leader 15 years ago, the party was in the throes of a calamitous collapse, dropping from more than 80 seats to five in the general election of 2011. The demise of Fianna Fáil as a serious political force was widely forecast, with many pundits predicting that Martin would be the first leader not to become Taoiseach.
He proved the sceptics wrong and dragged the party back to life in the two subsequent general elections, making it to the Taoiseach’s office in a rotating arrangement with Fine Gael. What he has going for him, by contrast with Starmer, is that he is widely perceived to be doing a good job in office.
Still, if the byelections turn out as badly as expected, there will be serious soul searching in Fianna Fáil and competition to succeed him will commence in earnest. That in itself could force his departure before he completes his term towards the end of next year. He is determined, though, to remain in office for the duration of the Irish presidency of the EU in the second half of this year and it is hard to see a serious challenge to his leadership emerging during that period. The early months of next year will be a different story.
What will rub salt into the wound as far as the byelections go is the likelihood of Fine Gael doing significantly better than its Government partner in both contests. With experienced, well-known candidates in both constituencies, the party should put in a creditable performance and might even be in with a chance of winning one of them.
[ Dublin Central byelection constituency profileOpens in new window ]
A victory in Galway West for Seán Kyne would be a turn up for the books, given the dismal record of successive governments when it comes to byelections. A good performance by Ray McAdam in Dublin would be the icing on the cake. The fact that the party is even in contention will be a huge relief for Simon Harris. He had been suffering from a generally negative commentary since the 2024 election, so good byelection performances will come as a timely boost before he delivers his first budget as Minister for Finance in the autumn.
It is not just the Government parties whose standing will be impacted by the byelection results. All of the Opposition parties have a lot riding on the outcome – none more so than Sinn Féin and Mary Lou McDonald.
[ Galway West byelection constituency profileOpens in new window ]
Given that Dublin Central is the bailiwick of the party leader, who topped the poll in 2024, there was a wide expectation in the run up to the byelections that Sinn Féin would easily take the seat vacated by Paschal Donohoe.
If it fails to achieve that objective, there will be questions about whether McDonald’s style of high octane opposition to the Government on every issue is the right approach to widening the party’s appeal. This will be particularly the case if it is accompanied by a poor performance in Galway West where Sinn Féin also has a sitting TD.
The byelections will also be a test for Labour and the Social Democrats. Labour’s candidate in Galway West, Helen Ogbu was considered an outside chance before the campaign but has been showing up well in opinion polls and some pundits think she could win on transfers.
In Dublin Central, the Social Democrats are widely tipped to win but, to do so, the party’s candidate Daniel Ennis will have to get more first preferences than Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan – and that is a tall order.
The byelections will also show whether there is now a serious move to the right in Irish politics. Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland is in contention in Galway and could even top the poll, but he is unlikely to get the transfers he needs to hold on to that position.
In Dublin, the showing by anti-immigrant campaigner Malachy Steenson the performance of criminal gang boss Gerard Hutch will tell a tale about the current public mood.
