Newton Emerson: Bertie Ahern understands unionists better than most

Bertie Ahern talks about unionism and the protocol with realism and understanding.

When he describes the unionist position, he is fitting it into an Irish nationalist analysis, yet it is a description where unionists can recognise themselves and not feel they are being discussed as an alien species.

It would be wrong to say Ahern is the only senior political figure in the Republic who can do this, although it increasingly feels like he is the only one speaking publicly and often. The former taoiseach can even discuss the DUP’s stance with objectivity, in contrast to the frustrated scolding of Irish Government Ministers.

“The DUP would be up to a reasonable agreement on [the protocol] providing it comes through the UK government,” Ahern told RTÉ two weeks ago. “We need to negotiate a settlement.”

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This was one of several interviews and speeches he has given over the past month on the resignation of Boris Johnson as a “glorious opportunity” to reset British-Irish relations. Last week, he told Newstalk he presumed Johnson’s successor would be Liz Truss.

Ahern has fleshed out two proposals. First, the Government should meet the new British prime minister “under the terms of the Good Friday [Belfast] Agreement, at intergovernmental level”.

This would reassert the institutional framework of the agreement, where the largely dormant British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference is meant to be the top-level mechanism.

The second proposal is to compile a report on the protocol from all the business groups in Northern Ireland and present it to London and Brussels. Stormont parties should be encouraged to contribute to the process.

‘Romantic stuff’

The report should be used to broker amendments to the UK government’s Bill to disapply the protocol. This would water the Bill down, yet also give it some legitimacy, forcing the UK and EU closer to terms.

Ireland should strengthen its position by lobbying Washington against any UK-US trade deal. It is the only language US republicans and British Conservatives understand. “None of the romantic stuff will get us anywhere,” Ahern said.

The former taoiseach has also specified a time frame. The report should be ready by the new prime minister’s appointment in early September and the amendments should be passed by the Westminster party conference season in October.

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The timing is tight but “there’s an opportunity to create momentum”.

Then the hard work of a new protocol deal can begin, bearing in mind the next UK general election in 2024.

“Does Liz Truss want to continue two years of war with the EU or does she want things to settle down?” Ahern asked.

Restoring Stormont should happen sooner. The former taoiseach said the DUP had a point that imposing the protocol on unionists went against the idea of “powersharing” in the Belfast Agreement. However, imposing the protocol Bill against the wishes of a majority “isn’t powersharing either”.

Cross-community consent

Arcane legal arguments are under way about whether the protocol really impinges on powersharing’s requirement for cross-community consent. Ahern was cutting through this by stating one side cannot simply impose its wishes on the other. If there was ever a legitimate “spirit of the agreement” argument, this is it.

The overwhelming impression from Ahern’s proposals is of the Belfast Agreement model of a bilateral British-Irish deal, based on agreement within Northern Ireland, with the help of US pressure. The EU might be the other party in current negotiations but it is unthinkable the peace process should be damaged by an uncompromising stance on trade bureaucracy.

Ahern’s instinct on the Border has always been “to make technology work in most cases and to throw a blind eye” to the rest, as he put it in 2017. Peace before paperwork is a position the EU professes to hold itself.

The model of Brexit negotiations has been very different. Bilateralism is considered a trap by Dublin and Brussels – a British divide-and-conquer tactic. London may hope the same. Consensus in Northern Ireland is desirable but not essential and border bureaucracy is sacrosanct. While these are the new realities, the contrast with Ahern’s approach should still cause reflection. If the protocol really is an Irish political success, with the aim of protecting the Belfast Agreement, the thoughts of the agreement’s Irish negotiator should carry some weight.

Of course, Ahern left office years ago and is a barely rehabilitated figure in the Republic.

Perhaps the best reason to listen to him today is that unionists listen to him. He earned the respect of the late David Trimble and the late Ian Paisley, as is well-remembered across both their parties and the unionist population.

In May this year, former minister Shane Ross described Ahern as a “wasted national asset” in Stormont and protocol disputes.

From a unionist perspective, that could not be any clearer.