Defence central to changes if Scots go independent

As the Scottish Referendum campaign enters its final days, defence remains the third most debated area, after economic and political issues.

The stakes are high. For the UK’s national defence, Scotland becoming independent would be an unmitigated disaster. The loss of sovereignty over the northern third of Great Britain’s land mass and territorial waters would have enormous implications for the remaining United Kingdom’s national defence.

That this might happen when the strategic defence priority is shifting northwards is a huge cause for UK concern. In the medium to long term, climate change will open up the Arctic to shipping, with access to adjoining seas for oil and gas exploitation. This will greatly increase the strategic importance of Scotland and its 800 islands.

In addition, the UK’s nuclear submarine fleet at Faslane in Scotland, with its Trident missiles, would have to be relocated, as the Yes campaign is committed to a Scotland free of nuclear weapons.

HMS ‘Queen Elizabeth

’ The UK government refuses to be drawn on a plan B for defence if there is a Yes vote on September 18th. Instead, the No side is going flat out to discredit Scottish defence proposals. More recently, even Queen Elizabeth played a cameo role on behalf of the No campaign. Her launching of the aircraft carrier HMS

Queen Elizabeth

, using a bottle of Scotch instead of the usual bottle of champagne, got widespread attention.

If a bottle of Scotch is an unofficial symbol of Scotland, the symbolism of its destruction by the monarch on the hull of a warship was not lost on Scottish nationalists. The ship was built on the Clyde, providing 10,000 jobs during its construction, and the timing of the launching was perfect in relation to the independence referendum. UK officials have hinted strongly that the building of its sister ship in Scotland will be conditional on a No vote.

Only two years ago Scottish nationalists were divided on defence policy. The overwhelming majority wanted the UK to withdraw its nuclear weapons from Scotland. A smaller majority favoured neutrality over joining Nato.

This commentator suggested a 10-year delay in withdrawing the nuclear deterrent, and membership of Nato instead of an Irish- style or Swedish-style neutrality.

A compromise was reached: Scotland would opt for Nato but UK’s nuclear weapons would be be removed from Scotland “in the lifetime of its first parliament”.

The general outline of the future Scottish defence forces was revealed in the Scottish government's document The Future of Scotland. The Scots would have a robust conventional deterrent capability to fight on land, sea and in the air, built up over a 10-year period. Priority would be given to the Scottish navy, with about 18 warships, including four frigates.

Its main army units would be in Scotland, and not in Germany where Scottish units are currently based. The old Scottish regiment names would be resurrected. It would be a two-brigade army, one regular and one reserve. The air force would ultimately have 16 Typhoon fighters, six Hercules transport aircraft, a helicopter squadron and possibly up to four maritime patrol aircraft. An independent Scotland (population 5.2 million) would, after 10 years, have 15,000 regular personnel and 5,000 reservists. (By contrast Ireland – population 4.6 million – has an establishment of 9,500 regulars and 4,000 reservists). The Scots are aiming at a defence budget of about 1.7 per cent of GDP, more than three times the size of Ireland’s (0.5 per cent). Moreover, Irish citizens would be welcome to join the Scottish defence forces.

Comprehensive discussions

Should there be a Yes vote, comprehensive discussions would be necessary between the UK and Scottish governments to implement the transition. Defence issues will be at the heart of these.

Should the Scots vote No, the UK would be well advised to note the Canadian government’s response after Quebec’s (close-call) independence referendum in 1995. The government delivered on all its promises to Quebec, to such an extent that Quebec separatists’ aspirations towards independence have been buried for at least a generation.

The UK government has made many defence-related promises to the Scots, such as lucrative defence orders, repatriation of Scottish units from Germany and retention of air bases in Scotland. If they fail to deliver on these and other promises the Scots could well call for a repeat referendum, Irish-style.

Should the Scots turn down the opportunity for independence the flame of Scottish nationalism is unlikely to fade away. The original Spiderman, Robert the Bruce, may well reach out from the grave and call on the Scots to try again.

Col Dorcha Lee (retired) is the author of the paper Reflections on Defending an Independent Scotland – a view from Ireland, published by the Institute of International and European Affairs