Britain’s post-Brexit pivot to Indo-Pacific remarkably modest

The drumbeat ahead of Tuesday's publication of Britain's foreign policy paper signalled a new, assertive stance, pivoting to the Indo-Pacific in a challenge to China. Decoupled from the European Union, Global Britain would become a power to be reckoned with east of Suez for the first time since 1968.

The actual 100-page document, authored by Belfast-born historian John Bew, is more modest in its ambitions and more sober in tone than some Conservative backbenchers wished for. Contrary to the British government's combative rhetoric in recent months, its policy towards China remains driven by trade and investment as much as by systemic rivalry or a concern for human rights.

It is almost as candidly mercantilist in its approach as that of the European Union, which British Conservatives excoriated last year for signing an investment agreement with Beijing. The new policy towards the Indo-Pacific echoes French and German strategies for engagement with the region and its ambition falls short in important ways of what the EU currently enjoys.

The paper identifies as a key diplomatic goal becoming a dialogue partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), a status the EU has had since 1972.

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The document scarcely mentions the EU but the only element of the overall foreign policy strategy that would have been impossible before Brexit appears to be the imposition of independent sanctions.

Puzzling

One of the more puzzling announcements was the increase in the cap on Britain’s nuclear stockpile from 180 warheads to 260. The government said last year that it wanted to replace the warheads deployed on its Trident missiles, which can be launched from Britain’s four nuclear submarines.

The new warhead will be produced with the United States and although the government is evasive on the subject, there is some speculation that the increase in the cap is designed to ensure that the US regards the order of warheads as adequate.

Tuesday’s paper told only half of the story about Britain’s integrated foreign and defence policy review and a command paper next week will reveal what military resources will be available to back up its global ambitions.

Reports suggest that the army's manpower could be cut by 10,000 to 72,000, with fewer tanks, fewer jets for the Royal Air Force and fewer frigates for the Royal Navy. The prime minister on Tuesday reaffirmed the position of the US as the most important ally but deep cuts in its military capacity could make Britain a less valuable partner.