Cyprus could soon be reconstituted as a federal republic made up of Greek and Turkish Cypriot sectors if a new UN settlement proposal is accepted.
The 150-page plan was presented simultaneously yesterday to the Cyprus President, Mr Glafkos Clerides, in Nicosia and to the Turkish Cypriot leader, Mr Rauf Denktash, who is in hospital in New York, where he is recuperating from a heart operation.
The Mediterranean island, which gained indepndence from Britain in 1960, has been divided since a 1974 coup, inspired by the military junta in Athens, provoked a Turkish invasion. All efforts since then to get the island's two communities to agree a settlement of their differences have failed.
The latest plan is designed to break the long-standing deadlock over whether a future bizonal, bicommunal republic should be a federation, as the Greek Cypriots want, or a confederation comprised of two independent, sovereign states, in line with Turkish Cypriot demands.
According to informed sources, the system envisaged is a combination of federation and confederation. Sovereignty will be on two levels. On the international plane and within the EU, there will be one Cypriot republic, a single entity speaking with one voice.
On the domestic plane, sovereignty will be divided between the two ethnic zones. Each community would have extensive self-government and its own parliamentary body, responsible for a range of issues, as well as representation in the central administration. The total population of the island is about 760,000, four fifths of them Greek Cypriot.
The choice of the type of central regime has been left open. Belgian and Swiss models have been proposed but neither settled upon. While Mr Clerides argues that one or the other model should apply, Mr Denktash proposes taking elements from both.
The system could be presidential or parliamentary or a combination of the two (a figurehead president and executive prime minister). There would be a rotating leadership. While the presidency was held by one community, his deputy (or the prime minister) would be from the other.
A Greek Cypriot wwould serve two terms for every one term a Turkish Cypriot was in office. It is not clear whether the president would be elected by the entire population or only by their community.
Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot ministers would be appointed on the basis of a ratio of 3:1 or 2:1. At least one Turkish Cypriot minister would have to vote with the majority on any decision.
At federal level, there would be two houses of parliament. In the lower house, both communities would be represented in accordance with their proportion in the population. The upper house will be divided on a 50-50 basis.
The local media reported that the Turkish zone would be reduced from 37 to 28-29 per cent of the island, so that at least half the 200,000 Greek Cypriot refugees could return to their homes under their own administration. A multinational force mandated by the UN Security Council will provide security and oversee implementation of the settlement plan.
The island would gradually be demilitarised. The 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, providing for stabilising intervention by Greece, Turkey and Britain, would be retained, and Greece and Turkey permitted to keep to up 5,000 troops on Cyprus. These will act only if the multinational force fails to impose security.
The text of the UN plan, drawing on inconclusive discussions between the two sides over the past nine months, was drafted with US and British input. The objective is to achieve a solution to the 40-year Cyprus dispute ahead of EU membership in 2004.
Unless this is achieved, Cyprus's admission to the EU could renew tension between Greece and Turkey, derail the entire EU accession process and obstruct Turkey's own bid for membership. If the sides cannot reach agreement on this text, the UN will present a non-negotiable framework which must be accepted by a specific deadline.
Greek Cypriots are reassured by the fact that a settlement has to be compatible with the acquis communautaire, since Cyprus is soon to become an EU member. If disputes arise between the communities, the EU could be the mechanism for resolving them.
Turkish Cypriot advocates of EU accession point out that following the victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey's parliamentary election, Ankara's politico-military establishment is likely to come under considerable pressure to accept the package.