QUIDNUNC/Renagh Holohan: Will there be a televised debate between the party leaders before the general election? One such proposal, by TV3, has already been abandoned because Fianna Fáil objected to the format. Now Opposition leaders are afraid that reluctance on the part of the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, to participate in a new arrangement may jeopardise the whole concept of a TV debate.
TV3, after much planning, proposed that the four main party leaders - Ahern, Michael Noonan, Ruairí Quinn and Mary Harney - should take part in an hour-long debate followed by an assessment and panel discussion. All agreed except FF, which said the structure was unfair to the Taoiseach as it did not reflect his standing. The idea has been dropped.
RTÉ has now proposed two debates at the beginning of the campaign and two at the end: between Ahern and Noonan, the choices for Taoiseach, and between Quinn and Harney, the prospects for tánaiste. Both Fine Gael and the PDs are happy with this arrangement, but Labour is not, and, says a source, the party is furious with RTÉ. Quinn, the party believes, could be taoiseach. The idea of the rotating post is still very much alive in their eyes, so he should not be excluded from the top debate. "They are all political leaders out there fighting for votes and RTÉ should not determine the status that one party will achieve. We are annoyed about this and will be taking advice. But then Ahern just doesn't want to debate with anyone." The matter will be discussed at the Labour election committee and a decision on participation taken. While FG is happy with RTÉ's format it is not sure the debate will ever occur. A spokesman said "the pattern is clearly set. Mr Ahern has dodged every debate so far and the instinct of his team is to minimise his exposure. We are not hopeful that he will agree this time." FF says the matter is still under consideration.
First Write
Writing a book on the election before it has even been called is no easy task, but that's what Noel Whelan has planned, and The Tallyman's Campaign Handbook is due out on April 15th. Forget that there there's no date yet, that new, and old, candidates are emerging daily and that tallymen are being killed off by electronic voting - Whelan is gun-ho about his project. A barrister and former FF organiser who recently failed to win a nomination to run in his native Wexford, he has three election books to his name.
The Campaign Handbook will profile each constituency, look at the candidates (outgoing and challenging), examine boundary changes, assess performances in Leinster House and in the 1999 local elections and detail published poll information. This election is the longest in coming, says Whelan, and there are huge changes in the electorate, as those age between 18 and 23 are voting for the first time.
"The other big thing is that nearly a quarter of a million people have come back to Ireland in the last five years. They are home owners concerned with quality of life issues - mature votes in their mid 30s. I think they had an impact on the abortion vote, as they came from places where it is not an issue. There is no reason to believe they will break down any different on party lines, but issues matter to them."
The last page will give "Whelan's Call" but it's too early for that yet. "Labour will definitely gain. But will they take seats from Fine Gael or Fianna Fail/PDs? There are only about a dozen Ahern/Noonan marginals in which a change in the last seat will be a vote for taoiseach.
"For example, in Dublin South if Eithne FitzGerald wins back the Labour seat, who she takes it from is relevant - if it comes from FG it will have no effect on the overall result, but if she wins at Liz O'Donnell's expense it will."
Whelan, with John Mullen, has another book in the offing - The Tallyman's Last Stand, which will examine the Dail and Seanad campaigns and results.
A lark in the Park
If the Dail had been sitting last Monday, the panic would have been far greater. In mid afternoon a rumour flew around Leinster House that the Taoiseach was on his way to the Park. Phones were jammed, calendars consulted, and a rush for the doors with the stamped stationery was imminent. Sanity returned after about 30 minutes. Yes, Bertie Ahern was on his way to Aras an Uachtarain, but merely for his normal monthly meeting to brief the President, Mrs McAleese on the state of the nation. He was not seeking a dissolution of the Dail. Older hands said they never fell for it - Bertie wouldn't call an election in Holy Week, he is too cautious to surprise anyone and there was far too much legislation on the books.
And they're off
The succession stakes for chief-of-staff of the Defence Forces have taken a sudden turn of foot even though the incumbent, Lieut Gen Colm Mangan, has still well over a year in office.
Interest has been created by the decision of a likely successor, Maj Gen Carl Dodd, to take the prestigious position of Force Commander with the UN observer force, UNTSO, in Israel. The high-profile post will take Dodd away from Ireland for two years during which time the top job must be filled.
The next in line, Maj Gen Jim Sreenan will face competition from a number of sides. One of the Defence Force's current high-fliers is Brig Gen Sean Brennan, a director with the EU Military Staff (EUMS) in charge of the formation of the European Rapid Reaction Force - one of the most important positions ever held by an Irish officer.
Eyes are also on Brig Gen Eddie Heskin, commander of the Eastern Brigade, and Brig Gen Jim Saunderson, who runs the Defence Forces Training Centre at the Curragh. Saunderson and Brennan are seen as strong, independent characters who would fight the Forces' corner in tight spots with the Department of Defence.
The dark horse is Brig Gen Frank McKevitt, a senior liaison officer with the EU, based in the Irish Embassy in Brussels. His European Experience will stand him in good stead as we move towards full membership of the Rapid Reaction Force next year.
Some tea party, without the pot
Four party leaders gathered outside Leinster House on Wednesday for a photo call promoting the Alzheimer's Society. Michael Noon, Ruairi Quinn, Mary Harney and Trevor Sargent partook of a cup of tea for the camera. Because of protesters, lobbyists and rubber-necks, the front gate became so crowded the tea party was moved inside onto the plinth. But the authorities wouldn't allow the teapot join them.
The man inside the pot, who could of course have been a cleverly disguised member of al-Qaeda, was excluded. His spout drooped as he watch from behind the rails.
Just read and succeed
Gene Kerrigan says he dislikes politicians no more than he dislikes other like, er journalists. It's hard to believe it from reading his new book, Never Make a Promise You Can't Break - How to Succeed in Irish Politics. It's a humorous, slightly tongue-in-cheek guide on how to get into the games and fight your way to the top, i.e. cabinet, while destroying all in your path, lying through your teeth and backslapping the gobdaws of voters.
The Sunday Independent journalist told Quidnunc he believed there are only about 30 competent TDs, so what he writes, while exaggerated for humour, is simply skewed reality.
"Itmay be cynical to make fun of people so afflicted, but it is recognised that some in the job are not capable. A lot of politicians set out to reform. Look at Noel Dempsey and where it got him. He was stabbed in the back by his colleagues not for incompetence or brown envelopes, but because he was seen as too idealistic."
Kerrigan's advice is not far off the mark. The way to succeed is to have no opinions and agree with everyone. (Shades of someone we all know there.) Never, he writes name a party that could tie you to a position, such as Socialist or Green. Progressive Democrat is clever because everyone wants to be both
"North that Fianna Fail and Fine Gael prospered for decades using meaningless names, no more than mere tribal howls. What you need is to be meaningless but positive.
"So call you new party Forward, for instance, or Onward. Better still, to make the meaning even less clear, give it an Irish name. We suggest Solas, or Suas or Dochas or Amarach )or even Amharach) or something like that.
"Trouble is you will eventually have to say something about politics, at which stage you have two options: stand for something or stand for everything. If you genuinely stand for something you will flop. The political centre is the place to be. From there, by standing for everything, by making your politics as vague as possible, you can seek support from right and left, and prosper. The drawback, however, is that the centre ground is pretty crowded these days."
The most important lesson is to remember names, but there's plenty more on how to back-stab colleagues, grab celebrity glitter, manipulate opinion polls, pout on the poor mouth and hire professional cute hoors.
The book will not be launched. The publisher said she didn't believe any politician could be found to do it.