Tougher relations between Russia and Washington are forecast

Russia stands to gain and lose regardless of who becomes president of the United States

Russia stands to gain and lose regardless of who becomes president of the United States. In the most likely scenario of a victory for Governor George Bush, Moscow will be faced with the introduction of a US National Missile Defence system which the Kremlin regards as a virtual return to Cold War attitudes.

A Democratic administration under Mr Al Gore would mean a stronger move towards NATO expansion right up to Russia's borders in the Baltic countries of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia; something which Moscow has vigorously opposed in recent years and which would rekindle anti-American attitudes which have been smouldering since the NATO action in Kosovo last year.

In the words of the former Russian foreign minister, Mr Andrei Kozyrev, Russian-American relations are now about to start from scratch.

The period in which incentives from Western countries were offered in an effort to improve relations has come to an end and an era of pragmatism is about to begin.

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"We sought equality in relations and we'll now get it," Mr Kozyrev told the Ekho Moskvy radio station, which is part of the media chain owned by the anti-Putin oligarch, Mr Vladimir Guzinsky.

Relations would now become quite tough. There would be no preferential loans and no humanitarian aid; Russia and a new US administration would "talk tough" on all issues from trade to terms of credit.

Official Russia has reacted with diplomatic caution. President Putin's foreign policy adviser, Mr Sergei Prikhodko, said in a statement that the Kremlin was "determined to pursue an active dialogue with the new US administration". He did not hazard a guess on whether that administration would be under the stewardship of Mr Bush or Mr Gore.

The former Soviet president, Mr Mikhail Gorbachev, echoed the views of the majority of Russian politicians by suggesting that relations between the two countries would be more difficult in the more likely event of a Republican administration taking office.

"I don't think there will be any radical change in our relations, but I think they will become more clear-cut. They will be pragmatic and more clearly defined, and therefore more difficult," he said.

Mr Gennady Seleznyov, the speaker of the State Duma who is a moderate Communist, pointed out that in the past Republican occupants of the White House had often achieved "breakthroughs" in relation to Russia.

Under Richard Nixon, the two rival superpowers signed the landmark 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty, and later Ronald Reagan's presidency "significantly strengthened and deepened" US-Soviet ties, he told the Interfax news agency.