The undecided hold the key to UUP fortunes

It's too late to stop now, to quote the words of Van Morrison. The nomination deadlines have passed.

There are about 1,000 men and women contesting seats in 26 local councils and about 100 candidates competing for 18 Westminster seats.

This election is now hotting up in a very curious way. The DUP relentlessly attacks the Ulster Unionist Party and vows Mr David Trimble will suffer on June 7th.

Mr Gerry Adams predicts that after polling day Sinn Fein will be breathing down the neck of the SDLP, and well on its way to being the largest party in Northern Ireland.

Then comes the Belfast Telegraph/Independent Group poll published yesterday which finds that one in four unionists and a similar number of nationalists respectively support the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP. In all, 1,031 people were polled by Ulster Marketing Surveys.

It reports that the UUP is 11 points ahead of the DUP and that the SDLP is nine points in front of Sinn Fein. "I don't believe it," said Mr Victor Meldrews of the DUP and Sinn Fein.

The only downside for Mr Trimble and Mr John Hume was the apathy factor. A more detailed element of the survey found that 13 per cent of Ulster Unionists and 12 per cent of SDLP supporters were undecided about whether they could find the energy to make their way to the polling stations.

If the undecided do come out then seats such as South Antrim and Strangford would, based on this survey, be won by the UUP.

It would also give the party a fighting chance in North Belfast, which is contrary to the indications on the ground.

Again, if these figures were correct, the SDLP would be favourite in West Tyrone, and could possibly take Fermanagh/ South Tyrone.

But surveys of canny Northerners' voting plans should be treated with a health warning. There is a tradition of some natural DUP or Sinn Fein supporters being reluctant to admit their preferences to pollsters because this might depict them as extremists.

For once, the DUP and Sinn Fein were of the same mind yesterday in insisting the poll bore little relation to political reality.

One senior pro-agreement observer was also cautious.

"Wouldn't it be wonderful if the centre ground was growing to that extent, but it just reads too good to be true," he said. And then, anxious not to burst this little bubble of optimism, he went into "perhaps" mode.

"I am fairly amazed at the poll, but perhaps this shows that people are more moderate than their politicians. Perhaps devolution is kicking in. Perhaps one positive feature of the foot-and-mouth outbreak is that it demonstrated to the general community that the Executive and the Assembly must be allowed to run their own business," he added.

Northern Ireland is not fertile ground for pollsters. Other papers and broadcasting bodies are reluctant to survey here because of the huge margins of error experienced in the past.

They will carefully scrutinise the results after June 7th to determine whether they bear any resemblance to the survey findings, which in turn will have a bearing on the future for polling in Northern Ireland.

Meanwhile, both the political and climatic temperatures continue to rise, and at present there is nowhere hotter or more bitter than North Down.

A defiant Mr Robert McCartney predicted he would hold his seat comfortably from the UUP challenge of Lady Sylvia Hermon, even if Alliance and the Ulster Unionists were ganging up on him.

"What does a result for me say for David Trimble if he loses?" asked Mr McCartney. "He's finished," he declared.

Mr Trimble immediately retorted: "Bob is, of course, a person who is very concerned about his reputation and also about the printed word so I think he will want to give very careful thought over the next few weeks about who he will want to select to write his political obituary after June 7th."

The latest word is that the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, will not visit Northern Ireland this week.

One official source said a clash of visits with Mr Blair in Belfast and Mr Bill Clinton in Derry today could create an "etiquette" problem.

He could still come next week, sources said. The real determinant, however, probably relates to politics more than protocol. If Mr Trimble wanted Mr Blair in Northern Ireland to provide a boost for his campaign then the Prime Minister would surely oblige.

Right now Mr Trimble feels he can do better on his own, thank you.