The deposing of Tunisia's president after street protests may kickstart change in the region, writes Michael Jansen
TUNISIAN MASS protests that brought down President Zine al-Abdine Ben Ali are regarded by many in the Arab region as being more consequential than the 1979 popular revolt that ousted the shah in non-Arab Iran. Ben Ali, who ruled for 23 years, is the first Arab leader to be overthrown by people power, the force that toppled Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos in 1986.
While people across the Arab world responded enthusiastically to events in Tunisia, there was deafening silence from the region’s western-backed autocrats who stand accused of monopolising power, corruption and indifference to unemployment and rising food prices. Demonstrations in support of Tunisian protesters in Egypt and Jordan reflected the aspiration of millions throughout the region for democratic change and freedom from external intervention.
After protests erupted in Tunisia in mid-December, people took to the streets in the country’s western neighbour, Algeria. At least five people died and 800 were wounded, while 1,000 were detained in a crackdown carried out by the authoritarian government of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, in power since 1999. The promise of subsidies on food and tax relief did little to stem the rising tide of frustration caused by widespread poverty not alleviated by revenues from oil exports.
There was speculation that unrest might migrate eastwards to Libya, ruled by Col Muammar Gadafy since 1969. Although living standards are relatively high and the regime has carried out reforms in recent years, unemployment, the issue that fuelled the Tunisian revolt, is soaring.
Egyptian activists celebrating Ben Ali’s flight outside the Tunisian embassy in Cairo chanted, “Ben Ali, tell Mubarak a plane is waiting for him, too.” Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, an ailing 83 year old and in power for 29 years, is expected to stand for a fifth term in the presidential poll next September. His regime, widely regarded as corrupt, lost credibility when the ruling National Democratic Party won all but a handful of seats in last November’s parliamentary election.
Ali Abdullah Saleh, ruler since 1978 of Yemen, the poorest Arab country, has to contend with a tribal rebellion in the north; secessionists in the south; al-Qaeda in the mountains; and the US military, which seeks to eliminate al-Qaeda, although most Yemenis resent foreign intervention.
The citizens of Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, face poverty, poor-quality education, unemployment and the strict social codes of the deeply conservative Wahhabi religious establishment which is in partnership with the 70-year-old monarchy. King Abdullah, now 88, is recuperating in New York from a back operation. His heir, defence minister Crown Prince Sultan (86), is, according to a 2009 WikiLeaked US diplomatic cable, “for all intents and purposes [mentally] incapacitated”.
Interior minister Prince Nayef (77) is next in line, presumably ensuring a smooth transfer of power, but he is close to the Wahhabis who have inspired al-Qaeda and alienated reformist Saudis.
Since the US began withdrawing its forces from Iraq, the Shia-dominated regime in Baghdad has gravitated toward Iran’s political orbit, risking fresh strife between Sunnis and Shias.
Jordan’s King Abdullah, whose family has ruled since independence in 1946, has made an effort to battle corruption, alleviate unemployment and counter rising prices to meet the demands of weekly leftist protests.
Due to the failure of the US to convince Israel to halt settlement construction in the occupied West Bank and negotiate seriously over the emergence of a Palestinian state, the ruling Fateh movement, dominant since 1968, has lost the support of a majority of Palestinians who no longer see negotiations as a means to attain self-determination and threaten a third intifada.
The disintegration of Lebanon’s unity government has plunged into crisis another key US ally in the strategic Middle East region. Prime Minister Saad Hariri was felled by charges that, under US pressure, he refused to resolve differences over the handling of the expected indictment by the US-backed tribunal of cabinet partner Hizbullah figures for the 2005 assassination of former premier Rafiq Hariri. Lebanon could be without a government for months, risking violence.
Belatedly addressing regional ferment during a tour of the Gulf, US secretary of state Hillary Clinton warned Arab leaders against tolerating “corrupt institutions” and “radicalism” and called upon them to grant their countries’ citizens space to develop politically and economically.
For Tunisia’s Ben Ali, her words are too little too late.