Tensions build ahead of Iranian election

IRAN: Bombs, demonstrations, arrests, attacks and accusations of sabotage..

IRAN: Bombs, demonstrations, arrests, attacks and accusations of sabotage . . . Only days before Iran's presidential election, the tension is beginning to show.

Bombs exploded in the western Arab-dominated province of Khuzestan and in central Tehran, killing nine people and injuring more than a hundred.

Although Khuzestan is a volatile province - Arabs make up 3 per cent of Iran's population, and ethnic clashes are an occasional occurrence - Iran has not witnessed this kind of violence since the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988. The attackers are still unknown, although several Arab groups in Iraq have claimed responsibility.

A peaceful demonstration for women's rights was tightly controlled by heavy-handed police.

READ MORE

Scuffles and violent arrests broke out as the crowd reacted with chants of "Down with the dictatorship".

Even leaders of Iran's beleaguered reform movement have been attacked.

Hardliners beat Behzad Navabi, a former parliamentary speaker, at a rally in the religious city of Qom. Aides of Mustafa Moin, the candidate of Iran's main reformist party, have complained that press conferences and rallies are being banned, and pro-regime vigilantes are intimidating party members.

Evidence, maybe, that the conservatives are getting jittery. But it looks like their tactics have backfired, playing straight into the hands of the reformists.

As campaigning for Iran's presidential election started last week, unofficial opinion polls had Moin trailing far behind the conservative candidates. With Iran's powerful ex-president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the lead, and ex-police chief Mohammad Qalibaf a close second, many said Moin did not stand a chance.

But the latest polls show that he has been propelled to second place. Analysts are predicting a second round as polls suggest that Rafsanjani is unlikely to gain the majority needed to win on the first ballot.

The fact that Moin has radicalised his campaign in a last-ditch bid to secure votes has also paid off. Daring to cross the Islamic Republic's "red lines", he has promised to free all political prisoners (a category of prisoner the judiciary does not even acknowledge); he has signed a pact with a banned liberal group whose members are regularly imprisoned; and he has even questioned the power of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

However, convincing the electorate that there is still room for reform will be a struggle. Many Iranians are fed up with the reform movement after President Khatami failed to deliver the social reforms he promised.

Moin will be faced with the same powerful hardliners who control the courts, political oversight bodies, parliament and armed forces that caused Khatami to be known as the lame-duck president.

"If Khatami couldn't give us the social reforms he promised, why should Moin think he can do it?" said 21-year-old student, Azam Nikpour, who says she will not be voting.

The boycott movement is spearheaded by student groups. Voter turnout in the Islamic Republic is often as high as 70 per cent, and boycotters say a low turnout will question the legitimacy of the regime. This is not good news for Moin, who says he is relying on the student vote, which was so instrumental in Khatami's victories in 1997 and 2001.

But Moin's daring tactics are persuading some boycotters that the movement may be a fruitless one.

"So what happens if there is a low turnout? Nothing will change, so we might as well make sure the conservatives don't get in as their followers will vote no matter what," said Hamid Hosseini, a 30-year-old businessman.

But the conservatives are feeling the pressure, with leaders pressurising all four candidates to bow out in favour of just one who can consolidate the vote.

And for many, Moin is the last hope. Morteza Ansari, a 27-year-old student of political science, said: "Eight years is not enough to fight the structure of a dictatorship. It's a step-by-step process, and boycotting will get us nowhere.

"If Moin can't carry on reform, who can? The conservatives won't, and then we'll be right back where we started."