Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll - Analysis: The citizenship referendum looks set to be approved, reports Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
This poll was taken 10 days before voters have to decide, and shows 57 per cent in favour, 22 per cent against and 21 per cent still to make up their minds.
Among those who have made up their minds, the proportion in favour is more than 70/30.
Campaigners on both sides speculate that there may be disproportionately higher number of Yes voters among the "don't knows". This possibility arises from the fact that some opponents of the Government proposal have characterised it as an ungenerous - even racist - gesture towards foreigners. They therefore may not be keen to tell opinion poll staff that they will vote Yes, even though they will do so in the privacy of the polling booth.
Whatever the truth of this, it seems that the Government may be on course for a 70/30 victory on Friday. Public opinion on referendums has swung dramatically in past campaigns. The first Nice treaty referendum campaign began with polls showing solid support for the proposal, only for there to be a No vote on the day.
However, during that campaign, polls tracked the steady erosion of support for Nice and the corresponding increase in opposition.
This time there has been no sign of any such movement - indeed the margin in favour has increased marginally during the two-week gap between the Irish Times/TNS mrbi polls.
The campaign itself has been low-key, overshadowed by the contests for local government and European seats. A modest number of Fianna Fáil Yes posters and Labour No posters are visible.
The Fianna Fáil campaign director, the Minister for Social and Family Affairs, Ms Mary Coughlan, has made a number of media appearances. Others fronting the Government's Yes campaign are Government Chief Whip, Ms Mary Hanafin, and Minister of State, Mr Brian Lenihan.
On the other side Labour, Sinn Féin and the Green Party have had press conferences urging a No vote.
But the campaign has not ignited a national debate. Canvassers from all parties report that if the referendum is raised at all by voters, it is simply to ask what it is about.
If there were not local and European elections on the same day, turnout would be very low. The public indifference reported by the political parties suggests that the number of ballots cast in the referendum may well be lower than the number cast in the elections, with voters either unsure of what to do, or unconcerned about the outcome.
If carried, the issue will not fade from view. The Government has promised legislation in the autumn to restrict the entitlement to citizenship by birth in Ireland to children who have at least one parent who has been legally resident on the island for three of the four years prior to the child's birth.
This could yet be the beginning of a broader debate about immigration and how the move to a more multicultural society can be managed to the benefit of the State's existing and new residents.