SOUTH:FIANNA FÁIL MEP Brian Crowley was last night on course to retain his seat in the Ireland South constituency as Fine Gael newcomer Sean Kelly looked set to win a seat for the party, while Sinn Féin's Toireasa Ferris and Labour's Alan Kelly were likely to be vying for the final seat.
Mr Crowley topped the poll with 118,258 or 23.74 per cent of the first preference vote – just over 6,000 votes short of the quota – followed by former GAA president Sean Kelly who polled an impressive 92,579 or 18.58 per cent of first preferences to put himself in pole position to take the second seat.
However, the destination of the final seat was unclear last night with Sinn Féin’s Toireasa Ferris polling an impressive 64,671 (12.98 per cent) of first preferences, just over 500 votes ahead of Labour hopeful Senator Alan Kelly who came home with 64,152 (12.88 per cent of first preferences).
Sitting Independent MEP Kathy Sinnott came in with 58,485 (11.74 per cent) – down from her 2004 performance of more than 89,000 votes. Sitting Fine Gael MEP Colm Burke polled 53,721 (10.78 per cent) of first preferences.
Fianna Fáil’s second candidate, Ned O’Keeffe, polled 16,596 (3.3 per cent) of first preferences just over 1,000 ahead of the Green Party standard bearer, Senator Dan Boyle with 15,499 (3.11 per cent of first preferences).
Much of the focus was on the relative positions of Ms Ferris, Alan Kelly, Kathy Sinnott and Colm Burke and how they were likely to benefit from transfers from Mr Boyle, who is based in Cork city, and Mr O’Keeffe, who is based in Mitchelstown in north Cork.
Following the elimination of Mr Sexton and Dr Stafford and the distribution of their combined total of 14,166, Ms Sinnott gained 3,5572 to move to within approximately 4,000 votes of Alan Kelly and Ms Ferris.
Alan Kelly picked up some 1,969 in transfers to move to 66,121 and leapfrog Ms Ferris, who picked up 1,190 to go to 65,861 to set up an intriguing contest for the last seat between the two and Ms Sinnott.
Returning officer Martin Harvey adjourned the count until this morning when it will resume with the elimination of Mr Boyle, whose new total of 16,250 will be distributed among the remaining seven candidates.
Political observers were predicting that the fight for the final seat would come down to a straight contest between Ms Ferris and Alan Kelly, with most predicting that about two-thirds of Dan Boyle’s votes were likely to go to both Mr Burke and Ms Sinnott, who are also Cork based.
However, the expected transfer from Mr Boyle and from Mr O’Keeffe was thought unlikely to enable either of them to close the gap on Ms Ferris and Alan Kelly, resulting in Mr Burke’s elimination, which in turn would result in the election of Sean Kelly with the Kerry-based candidate possibly receiving up to a 50 per cent transfer from his running mate.
Some observers predicted the balance of Mr Burke’s votes would favour Alan Kelly over Ms Ferris but that it would be the elimination of Ms Sinnott – who faces too large a gap to make up on her two rivals – that would decide the destination of the last seat.
Much appeared to depend on if and by how much Alan Kelly could manage to be ahead of Ms Ferris prior to Ms Sinnott’s elimination, as observers speculated that she was more likely, as a woman candidate, to pick up more transfers from Ms Sinnott.
Mr Crowley accepted his vote would be seen as “fillip” for Fianna Fáil but he was confident the party would bounce back from its poor showing in the local elections.