Nicolas Sarkozy maintained he could cause an upset as polls yesterday showed him closing the gap on François Hollande in the final days of the campaign.
An Ifop poll released hours before a moratorium came into effect at midnight last night showed Mr Hollande in the lead on 52 per cent (down one) and Mr Sarkozy on 48 per cent (up one), reflecting a trend suggested by a number of polling companies this week. “It will be on a razor’s edge,” said Mr Sarkozy. “On Sunday night, you’re going to see a big surprise.”
To be in with a chance of crossing the 50 per cent mark, Mr Sarkozy needs three things to go right for him, says Dominique Reynié of Sciences Po. First, he must attract a strong majority (over 60 per cent) of votes from far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Last night’s Ifop poll showed 55 per cent of Le Pen voters are switching to the president. And the trend has been positive for him all week, while Mr Hollande is attracting 19 per cent and 26 per cent plan to abstain.
Second, Mr Sarkozy needs a strong minority (at least 40 per cent) of those who chose the centrist François Bayrou in the first round to switch their support to him. Ifop gives him 37 per cent of Bayrou votes, compared to 31 per cent for Mr Hollande and 32 per cent abstaining. Mr Bayrou, a former minister in a right-wing government, had announced that he was voting for the socialist candidate. But the news broke too late to allow pollsters measure what effect the endorsement could have on his supporters’ voting intentions.
Finally, Mr Sarkozy must attract a significant proportion (at least 30 per cent) of voters who did not cast their ballot in the first round and hope that Mr Hollande wins fewer than 20 per cent of them.