THE major earthquake in Iran coincided with the first day of the presidential election campaign, and its aftershocks, both geological and political, could determine the outcome of the May 23rd poll, writes Michael Jansen.
For the first time since the Islamic revolution in 1979, the presidential race has shaped up into a real contest between two credible candidates, the other two being non starters.
Until the earthquake intervened on Saturday, the favourite was Mr Ali Akbar NateqNouri, the Speaker of Parliament who represents the conservative faction supported by the Supreme Spiritual Guide, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
He was expected to defeat Mr Muhammad Khatami, a former culture minister known for his liberal views backed by the moderate faction led by the sitting President, Mr Hashemi Rafsanjani, who must vacate the post after two four year terms.
While Ayatollah Khamenei called upon the local religious authorities to assume responsibility for the relief effort, Mr Rafsanjani appealed immediately for international aid to assist the thousands of victims of the quake.
His action contrasted sharply with the delayed and tentative approach adopted by Tehran three years ago when there was a similarly devastating disaster. Then many people died who could have been saved and the government came in for severe criticism.
The clerics procrastinated because of the struggle for dominance being waged between moderates, prepared to elicit outside aid, and radicals, who insisted on self reliance.
Today, the line between the two factions has blurred and the needs of the victims of the latest disaster may prevail over revolutionary ideology. A victory for the conservatives in the presidential poll could slow or even halt this gradual opening up of Iran to the outside world.
If Mr Rafsanjani's pleas to international agencies are met promptly and efficiently and the more liberal elements of Iranian society, particularly the intellectuals and students, join in the effort to assist the earthquake affected areas, Mr Khatami could well become the next president of Iran. But if the international community is slow, or grudging, and the reactionary clerics and merchants take charge of relief efforts, the hardliner Mr Nateq Nouri could win, to the cost of Iranian reconciliation with the world at large.