Those who negotiated the Northern Ireland Agreement on Good Friday have reason to feel cautiously optimistic at this early stage about the prospect of securing the approval of a substantial majority for their efforts, in the Northern referendum. But even the most sanguine will hardly need reminding that five weeks is a near-eternity in politics.
Almost three in four, or 73 per cent, of respondents express an intention of voting in favour of the agreement. There is an interesting gap between intentions and hopes, however, with only 8 per cent believing there is a "very strong chance" of a lasting peace in the light of the agreement, although 44 per cent say there is a "reasonably strong chance".
Support for the agreement is stronger among Catholic respondents than among Protestants, with 90 per cent of the former prepared to vote for it compared with 62 per cent of the latter.
In the different age-groups, the highest level of support for the peace deal at 83 per cent is found in the 50-64 category. The youngest set of voters (18-24 years) is less supportive, at 68 per cent , with their grandparents in the 65-plus age-group returning a figure of 66 per cent in favour of the agreement.
As he ruminates over the outcome of yesterday's meeting of the Orange Order, Mr David Trimble can derive comfort from the generous margin of support for the agreement from UUP voters surveyed in this poll. Among UUP adherents 70 per cent say they will vote Yes in the referendum, which is the exact percentage of Democratic Unionist Party supporters who will vote No.
The view that this is a unionist deal is clearly not shared by supporters of the main nationalist parties. Among SDLP voters, 93 per cent intend at this stage to vote Yes and the corresponding figure for Sinn Fein is 81 per cent. The support level among Alliance voters also stands at 93 per cent .
There is a significantly higher level of support for the pact among the middle-classes, at 81 per cent, compared with 69 per cent among the working-class. The western region of Northern Ireland is the most favourable with 84 per cent intending to vote for the agreement, as against 74 per cent in Belfast and 62 per cent in the north-eastern area.
Generally speaking, the groups which show the highest level of support for the agreement are also those which harbour the greatest degree of hope that it will lead to a permanent resolution of the conflict. Thus, 63 per cent of those in the 50-64 age-group believe there is a very strong or reasonably strong chance of lasting peace, compared with 35 per cent in the 18-24 category.
The middle-classes are more hopeful than the working-class, at 58 per cent and 48 per cent respectively. Catholic expectations of peace are higher than those of Protestants, at 64 per cent compared with 44 per cent. In regional terms, the west is the most hopeful at 63 per cent with the north-east being least optimistic at 44 per cent .
Among supporters of the various parties, SDLP voters at 67 per cent are the most optimistic, closely followed by Alliance at 63 per cent and Sinn Fein at 60 per cent. The optimistic view among UUP voters at 52 per cent is more than twice the DUP level at 24 per cent.
A total of 14 per cent intend to vote No in the referendum and 13 per cent have no opinion. Thus the Yes campaigners start out with a commanding lead, with the unionist vote being the most vulnerable. The initial challenge for anti-agreement unionists will be to persuade a majority of their own community to oppose the deal.
Asked which party they would give their first preference to, in the Assembly elections, 30 per cent named the UUP with 21 per cent backing the SDLP, in a poll which returned a total of 16 per cent "don't knows".
The figures for Sinn Fein and the DUP seem, at first glance, surprisingly low at 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively. This represents a sharp drop on recent election showings for the two parties. Sinn Fein scored 16.9 per cent in the local government elections last May, 16 per cent in the Westminster poll and 15.5 per cent in the 1996 Forum vote. Corresponding figures for the Rev Ian Paisley's party were: 15.8 per cent in the council poll; 13.6 per cent for Westminster and 18.8 per cent in the Forum elections. Observers say supporters of both parties have a history of reticence when asked about their voting intentions.
The "beauty contest" for the person most widely perceived as being helpful in reaching the Agreement is won by Mr Tony Blair with a score of 93 per cent. There is strong competition for second place between Mr John Hume (87 per cent), Senator George Mitchell (86 per cent), Dr Mo Mowlam (84 per cent), Mr Trimble (82 per cent), Mr Bertie Ahern (81 per cent) and Mr David Ervine (78 per cent).
The lowest score in this category goes to Dr Paisley on 9 per cent, way behind the next lowest, Mr Gerry Adams on 56 per cent. The Sinn Fein leader does much better among Catholics at 86 per cent than Protestants at 36 per cent, although it is interesting that more than one in three Protestants regards his contribution as "helpful".
If Nobel Prizes are to be handed out, the adjudicators may wish to take account of the results in the category of "Person to whom you would give most credit for reaching the agreement".
Here, Mr Blair and Mr Hume are neck-and-neck, with the Prime Minister one point ahead at 22 per cent compared to 21 per cent for the SDLP leader. Mr Trimble comes third at 18 per cent, followed by Senator Mitchell on 14 per cent. The Taoiseach is a surprisingly low 5 per cent, just ahead of Mr Adams who ties with Mr Ervine at 4 per cent.
The poll was conducted by telephone between last Saturday and the following Tuesday and the sample size for Northern Ireland was 500. Outstanding impressions are the extremely high level of support and expectation among Catholics and supporters of the nationalist parties and the lower, but still formidable, totals among Protestants and supporters of the Ulster Unionist Party.
Among the key determinants between now and referendum day will be whether Sinn Fein comes out publicly in support of the deal, adopts a stance of benign neutrality or campaigns actively for a No vote. Another important factor will be the strength of the DUP-UK Unionist campaign against the agreement and the degree of support this receives from UUP members. At this stage, the main worry for pro-agreement campaigners must be a gradual erosion of support among unionists. In that context, UUP leaders are probably wise in suggesting President Clinton should postpone his visit until after the referendum.
The loyal sons and daughters of Ulster do not like feeling that their arms are being twisted.