With dramatic Level 5 U-turn, Government weakens its own authority

It’s one hell of a U-turn, whatever way you look at it.

Twice in the past two weeks the Government received advice from its public health experts to return to lockdown, or near-lockdown, conditions. Twice the Government said: not now. Let’s give the existing restrictions time to work. Let’s encourage people to improve their compliance. We have to think of the wider needs and health of society.

On Monday night that approach was abruptly abandoned. Faced with predictions from public health experts that Covid infections would spiral in the coming weeks and could overwhelm the health system, the leaders of the Government parties decided over the weekend that a significant tightening of restrictions on social and economic life was necessary, effectively bowing to health advice that they had previously considered over-the-top.

Growing numbers of infections and signs that hospitalisations were beginning to increase – allied to the urgency, intensity and frequency of warnings from chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan – led Taoiseach Micheál Martin, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan to conclude over the weekend that holding out against further restrictions was both a health risk and a political risk too far.

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Government insiders say the strongest reservations were held by Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe and Minister for Public Expenditure Michael McGrath, and by Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly, who was opposed to the move.

Varadkar’s attitude

However, according to several sources on all sides of the Government, the decisive change in recent weeks was the attitude adopted by Varadkar, previously the chief (or at least most public) critic of the way the National Public Health Emergency Team was trying to, as insiders saw it, bounce the Government into a new lockdown.

They observed that when the facts changed, he changed his mind, and it is clear that Ministers have been confronted with a different and more serious outlook in recent days than they were a week ago when Nphet first began advising that a return to lockdown was needed.

But Monday night’s move still represents an extraordinary change of direction by the Government. It has not been widely welcomed within its own ranks. While some Ministers believe that adopting the Nphet advice was always inevitable, and that it’s better to get it done quickly, other senior figures in Government are strongly opposed.

“It’s a massive failure of nerve,” said one source involved in the deliberations.

Several other senior figures echoed these sentiments, with some believing it is a decision that the Government will regret.

“Absolutely crazy,” said one.

“Terrible decision,” said another.

Critics point out that the people who actually run the hospitals – the HSE – do not believe it is in danger of being overwhelmed.

Others point out that the rate of deaths, admissions and ICU cases is a fraction of what it was in the first wave back in April. One source explained how treatments had improved hugely since the spring.

There are two reasons for the U-turn.

The first is that the Government was genuinely spooked by the spread of the virus – fears that were stoked by warnings from Holohan and Nphet, who told Ministers over the weekend that the “rapid deterioration” would continue to worsen. The public health warnings were that it was only a matter of time before the hospitals and ICU units began to fill up again.

In a corner

The second reason is that politically the Government was in a corner. If the Government turned out to be wrong about resisting the lockdown, and was forced into it in the coming weeks, perhaps over Christmas, it would face a heavy political price.

Holding out in the face of Nphet’s advice was always a risky political position. But folding now is not without risk either.

The opposition within Government will be amplified outside it. The economic costs could be extremely damaging. There must now be a question of whether the schools remain open – a key test of the administration’s ability to manage the country.

“I’m not worried about the ICUs,” says one Government insider. “I’m worried about the teachers.”

It’s hard to conclude anything other than the Government is heavily divided on the key challenges facing it. It has weakened its own authority – and therefore its capacity to act.