Valentine’s Day massacre for Government?

It is St Valentine’s Day today, but in the political world nobody is sure if February 14th is going to be marked by cosying up . . . or by a massacre.

The 'golden rule' for political survival in the face of a media frenzy was supposedly conceived by Tony Blair's spinmeister Alastair Campbell (though he cannot remember coming up with it!).

It goes along the lines of that if the story dominates the headline for nine days running, then you will not survive the onslaught, and you will have no choice but to fall on your sword.

So the controversy over the scurrilous, unfounded sex-abuse slurs made against Maurice McCabe has eclipsed everything else for five days in a row now . . . and counting.

Tribunal of inquiry into McCabe smear allegations likely

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Political cluelessness will fail to prompt any rolling of heads

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McCabe urges ministers to say if they were briefed about false abuse claims

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Zappone contradicts Kenny over knowledge of Tusla controversy

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There were expectations in Merrion Street yesterday that Ministers could bring a little clarity to it and that the whole thing could be cooled down a little

But, if anything, the reverse happened. Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin began the day by calling on Garda Commissioner Nóirín O'Sullivan to assess her position. That represented a clear shift in the party's position.

Jim O’Callaghan did not fully go there when doing later interviews, but now the embattled O’Sullivan was under pressure.

She responded with a vigour that few expected, namely a very strongly worded statement saying she was not going anywhere (in other words, not amenable to any late night visits from the secretary general of the Department of Justice).

I can safely predict Zappone is unlikely to get many cards from admiring Cupids around the oval table in Government Buildings

Then we had layers of more confusion in the afternoon. Following Jim O'Callaghan's contradiction of Frances Fitzgerald's recollections, Minister for Children Katherine Zappone gave a very different account of her dealings with the Taoiseach over the McCabe issue than he had given.

Kenny said Zappone had told him she was meeting the McCabes before she met them. She said she actually spoke to him afterwards and had mentioned Tusla was in the frame. Kenny had essentially said that the first he knew of Tusla was on Thursday night.

And then in the evening, the shift towards a full public inquiry (as opposed to a mainly private commission of investigation) gathered momentum, with it being backed by all the Opposition parties. The upshot is the Government parties will have little choice but to consider it.

Here is our take on a multifaceted day in our main lead.

Meanwhile, all Dáil business is likely to be suspended over the next two days to debate a motion of no confidence in the Government tabled by Sinn Féin.

To say the Cabinet meeting will be dominated by this today is the understatement of the year. I can safely predict Zappone is unlikely to get many cards from admiring Cupids around the oval table in Government Buildings.

Five days and counting. The Government will survive but not unscathed.