Presidential election: Flying the Government jet into trouble

Good morning.

Michael D Higgins faces the final televised debate of the presidential election this evening with questions over his use of the Government jet dominating coverage of the campaign.

His supporters will watch the debate, chaired by RTÉ’s David McCullagh, in the hope Higgins manages to get through the night without giving more hostages to fortune, as he did in last week’s TV3 event, or reacting badly to sustained attacks from the other candidates.

Higgins - who even his own supporters acknowledge is thin-skinned and unable to ship much criticism - last week said that for “security reasons” he had to use both the Government jet and his State car to travel to Belfast earlier this year to deliver a speech.

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The statement led to briefings from the PSNI that were seen as disputing Higgins's claim that he had to use the jet because "security reasons" meant "he couldn't be picked up at the Border". The story makes the front of The Irish Times today and is prominently featured across all media outlets.

It is likely to be the main point of attack for the other five candidates desperate to reduce Higgins's seemingly unassailable lead. The Prime Time debate is their last chance, and all the indications are Higgins could be in for some rough treatment.

Sean Gallagher has abandoned his folksy bonhomie for sustained attacks on Higgins over spending in the Áras, while Sinn Féin’s Liadh Ní Riada wrote to the President claiming he must deal with the “serious questions” that have been raised.

Interestingly, Mary Lou McDonald told our Inside Politics podcast yesterday that a successful outing for Sinn Féin in this election would be getting its "core" vote out.

Gavin Duffy has accused the President of “Learjet socialism”, and Peter Casey continues with his practice of using flame throwing as a campaigning tool. Joan Freemen almost plaintively pleads for the campaign to return to the “issues”, such as her favoured topic of mental health.

Higgins has reacted badly to questions about his presidential expenditure at least once in this campaign by snapping at reporters. RTÉ duly obliged by playing the full clip on its evening bulletins, and Higgins’s supporters fear a similar episode could overshadow what should be a canter to the finish for the President over the coming days.

Once again, he will need to avoid getting dragged down into a dogfight by his rivals.

Talks teams get ready for kick-off

What better way to fill the void left by the conclusion of the presidential election - with the broadcast moratorium kicking in on Thursday - than weeks of an exciting review and possible renegotiation of the confidence-and-supply deal? We jest, of course.

Both the Taoiseach and Micheál Martin have selected their teams for the talks, which are slated to begin this Thursday. Some Government sources - having written off confidence and supply as an effective mode of government - openly despair at the prospect of reviewing the document underpinning the Varadkar administration.

Those around politics who are always on high alert for any indication of an early election or a longer respite from the polls - which is everyone - have been parsing the choices of both leaders.

Dara Calleary, the Fianna Fáil leader deputy leader who heads his party’s delegation, is widely seen as a safe pair of hands and is already on record as saying that any extension of confidence and supply should take in one more budget. Both Calleary, who was previously Fianna Fáil public expenditure spokesman, and Michael McGrath, the finance spokesman who is also on the FF team, have experience of negotiating budgets with Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, one of those representing Fine Gael.

The inclusion of Lisa Chambers, Fianna Fáil’s Brexit spokeswoman, indicates the EU-UK talks will form the dominant backdrop to the FF-FG process. Martin’s team also includes Donegal TD and agriculture spokesman Charlie McConalogue.

Although relatively low key, McConalogue is hugely trusted by Martin and other senior FF figures, such as general secretary Sean Dorgan. Deirdre Gillane, Martin’s chef de cabinet, is also likely to attend every session.

Tánaiste Simon Coveney - who will have to balance the confidence-and-supply talks with the intense bout of diplomacy needed as the Brexit negotiations reach their conclusion - will lead for Fine Gael, and has experience of doing deals. The Tánaiste recently helped shore up the Government’s position by recruiting the support of Independents such as Noel Grealish after the resignation of Denis Naughten. Coveney was also instrumental in building the Fine Gael-led minority government in 2016.

Regina Doherty is said by Government insiders to be hugely trusted by Varadkar, and she also excels in prodding and annoying Fianna Fáil.

Martin Heydon, the Fine Gael parliamentary party chair, rounds out the Taoiseach’s team of TDs, and Varadkar’s chief of staff, Brian Murphy, is also expected to be on hand.

The two Ministers seen as most keen on an early election - Simon Harris and Eoghan Murphy - have been left out, although they risked becoming punchbags when Fianna Fáil turn to the controversial areas of housing and health.

The outcome of the talks largely comes down to Martin. Numerous sources in Fianna Fáil report that recent weeks have seen a shift in the views of many in the parliamentary party - encouraged by a strong few weeks for Martin - towards extending the deal.

Martin will have to decide if he wants to extend, or if he should bog Varadkar down in process and risk the Taoiseach calling time on the talks and heading to the country once the Brexit talks have been settled.

As ever, the Fianna Fáil leader is letting very few, if any, in his party know what his intentions are, even if most involved accept that the process - a review if you are FF, renegotiation if you are FG - should be wrapped up before Christmas.

“I honestly don’t think his left hand knows what his right hand is doing,” said one FF party figure of the leader.

Best Reads

Fintan O'Toole says our presidents - Higgins included - are the best in the world.

Denis Staunton has the latest on Brexit from London here and here.

Mary Lou McDonald said Sinn Féin will not take part in events to mark the 100th anniversary of the establishment of Northern Ireland.

And the Dáil's budgetary watchdog has criticised the Government for spending too much money.

Playbook

The Taoiseach is leading an early morning Fine Gael canvass in support of Higgins at the top of Grafton Street.

The Cabinet meets today. It has a relatively light agenda, although the Taoiseach and Tánaiste are expected to give an update on Brexit.

Dáil

Leaders’ Questions kicks in at 2pm, followed by the Order of Business.

A postponed division on the second reading motion of the Health (Regulation of Termination of Pregnancy) Bill 2018 is also scheduled.

Minister for Health Simon Harris is on oral questions after Taoiseach’s questions.

The Finance Bill is at second stage.

A Social Democrats-Green Party Bill on plastic waste is also being taken.

Seanad

The Seanad has the Markets in Financial Instruments Bill 2018 at committee and remaining stages, the Greyhound Racing Bill at committee stage and statements on the Disclosures Tribunal report.

Committees

The Finance, PER and Taoiseach’s committee is discussing local public banking in Ireland with the Central Bank, Irish Rural Link, the Credit Unions and the International Small Business Alliance, among others.

Agriculture, Food and the Marine has Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed, Teagasc and Bord nag Con before it for an “update on the aquaculture licensing review process”.

Education and Skills discusses “the effectiveness and timeliness of consent classes provided in third level institutions”.

RnaG and RTÉ are in before the committee on Irish Language, the Gaeltacht and the Islands.

Rural and Community Development discusses regional and rural transport policy with the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport.