How much trouble is Fitzgerald in?

Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald is in political trouble. How much trouble depends on a number of factors.

For one, if disclosures come to light about the Government’s state of knowledge in 2015 of what was happening in the (private) O’Higgins commission, then her position will be in serious jeopardy.

There are also a couple of gaps (and one mystery) in the account she gave to the Dáil last night. We will come back to the mystery. If they are not cleared up sufficiently, she will remain mired in an ongoing personal crisis by the time the Sinn Féin no-confidence motion is heard next week.

By that stage, if things look ropey for her, her future could be decided by senior colleagues including Taoiseach Leo Varadkar distancing themselves. Or, less likely, by Fianna Fáil looking for a head on a plate.

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In any instance, it will all come to a head when a Sinn Féin motion of no confidence is tabled next week, presuming the party goes ahead with it.

Essentially, this story stems from the strategy that was pursued by the legal team for the former Garda commissioner in May 2015 at the O’Higgins commission, which was investigating allegations made by Sgt Maurice McCabe of inaction and corruption in the Cavan-Monaghan division.

Counsel for then-Garda commissioner Nóirín O’Sullivan told the chair, Judge Kevin O’Higgins, his “instructions were to challenge the integrity of Mr McCabe”. He later modified this to “challenge the motivation and credibility” of Sgt McCabe. That aggressive strategy was first revealed by journalist Mick Clifford in The Examiner in 2016.

Last week in the Dail, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said the first Ms Fitzgerald knew about it was in 2016, when the leak was published. But now an email from the time of the hearing has emerged. It shows she was made aware of it at the time, a year earlier than she had said until now.

The email was written by an official from the Department of Justice who had been alerted to this strategy by the Attorney General’s Office.