OECD says growth likely to slow in 2005

Economic growth in the OECD area is likely to slow in the months ahead, the organisation announced today.

Economic growth in the OECD area is likely to slow in the months ahead, the organisation announced today.

An early warning indicator issued by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed the economic outlook weakened in September for the United States, but prospects for the euro zone and Japan brightened slightly.

But the OECD warned that a measure that signals change in the pace of growth - the so-called six-month rate of change - was down for the eighth month in a row, falling to 1.7 in September from 2.3.

"Slowing expansion lies ahead in the OECD area according to the latest composite leading indicators," the Paris-based OECD, which groups 30 industrialised countries, said in a statement.

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The leading index, which summarises information contained in several short-term indicators known to be linked to gross domestic product, rose slightly for the OECD as a whole to 103.7 in September after 103.6 in August.

The euro zone's leading indicator improved to 106.4 in September from 106.0 the month before. The bloc's rate of change was steady at 2.9 in September.

Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, saw its leading indicator edge up to 108.7 from 108.6, while France's leading indicator rose to 107.3 from 106.6.

Britain's prospects also brightened in the OECD report, with its leading indicator rising to 101.5 from 100.9. Japan's leading indicator rose to 98.1 from 97.9.

The OECD index followed data this week showing a mixed trend for the manufacturing and service sectors of the economy in both the United States and the euro zone.

The Reuters Eurozone Purchasing Managers manufacturing index showed a slowdown in the rate of expansion, falling to 52.4 on October from 53.1 in September, but its services equivalent was marginally higher at 53.5 from 53.3.

A similar pattern was seen in the equivalent US indices, published by the Institute for Supply Management. Its manufacturing index showed a sharper fall, to 56.8 from 58.5, but the services numbers improved markedly, to 59.8 from 56.7.