Nice vote hangs in the balance, poll shows

The campaign to ratify the Nice Treaty is in a worse position now than the comparable period before the first vote on the issue was lost, according to a new Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.

The poll, in today's Irish Timesshows that 37 per cent of the electorate intend to vote for the Nice Treaty while 25 per cent will vote against. The poll finds that some 32 per cent do not know how they will vote and 7 per cent of voters have decided not to vote.

How well do you feel you understand the issues involved in the Nice Treaty?

This gives the Yes campaign a narrower margin of support than in an opinion poll at the start of the June 2001 referendum campaign. In that

Irish Times

/MRBI poll 52 per cent said they would vote Yes, 28 per cent said they would vote No with 27 per cent having no opinion.

The first Nice treaty referendum was lost with 54 per cent voting against with 46 per cent voting in favour. Only 34.8 per cent of the electorate voted on the first referendum.

The poll also highlighted the poor understanding of the issues involved in the Nice Treaty referendum debate. Just 16 per cent of voters claim to have a good understanding of what the treaty is about.

According to the poll, 37 per cent say they understand some but not all of the issues, 26 per cent are only vaguely aware of the issues with 19 per cent saying they do not know what the treaty is about at all. The remaining two per cent expressed no opinion.

The poll also notes that satisfaction with the Government has fallen by 25 per cent since May to just 36 per cent, while the Taoiseach's personal rating has fallen 19 points to 51 per cent, the lowest since becoming Fianna Fáil leader in 1994.

The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State.