A new trade pact that global financial institutions say would put vigour into the world economy is unlikely to be ready for at least another two years, trade sources and diplomats said today.
The original target date for the deal at the Geneva-based World Trade Organisation (WTO) was the end of this year.
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that at the current pace of negotiations completion during 2007 looked a more likely outcome, even if a "road map" for the way ahead is wrapped up this month, as officials hope.
Central to the disagreements has been the problem of agriculture, and the demands from nations of the developing South for better access to the markets of the rich North - as well as an end to subsidies paid to Northern farmers.
Since Cancun, WTO focus has been on getting an outline agreement on how the agricultural issue can be tackled while keeping parallel discussions on liberalising trade in manufactured goods and on services moving along.
But the latest predictions of overall delay emerged from a report, to be presented to the WTO's ruling General Council later this month on the state of the talks on services.
The chairman of those negotiations, Chile's WTO ambassador Mr Alejando Jara, notes that of 117 member countries who should have presented initial offers on opening up their services markets by March 2004, so far only 65 have done so.
Trade sources said his concern was based on the fact that even when the first offers are finally submitted, the to-and-fro of the services negotiating process would take at least another two years before the end could come in sight.
Diplomats said it was excluded that services - which include big ticket items like banking and insurance and others like call centres and tourism which are of vital interest to poorer countries - could be decoupled from the overall talks.
The European Union and the United States, they said, as well as Japan, South Korea and Switzerland, would only be ready to make major changes in farm subsidies if they could be sure of what to them would be a good deal in services.