A victory for Zimbabwe's ruling party in a byelection suggests that the President, Mr Robert Mugabe, is likely to keep power if he contests next year's presidential polls, analysts said yesterday.
The election result at the weekend was a blow to the two-year-old leading opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), although the MDC still poses a credible challenge.
Zimbabwe's opposition, although new, won 57 of the 120 contested seats during the June 2000 parliamentary elections, delivering the most serious warning yet to Mr Mugabe in his 21-year rule.
The MDC, however, lost the crucial parliamentary byelection to the governing Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in a predominantly rural constituency in Bindura, in the north-east of the country.
Mr Elliot Manyika of ZANUPF beat the MDC candidate, Mr Elliot Pfebve, winning with 15,864 votes against 9,956 for Mr Pfebve. Mr Joseph Kurebwa, a University of Zimbabwe political scientist, said the outcome in Bindura reflected what might be expected next year because "the strata of voters . . . who include commercial farmers, peasants, townsmen and workers, represent a wide spectrum of people in this country".
Mr Mugabe is expected to face the MDC leader, Mr Morgan Tsvangirai, in a presidential election to be held by April 2002. Analysts believe the government's controversial land reform programme, violence and intimidation were contributory factors to the election results in Bindura.
"The 4,000 people resettled in the constituency alone made a significant impact and tipped the balance in favour of ZANUPF," said Mr Kurebwa. Another political scientist, Mr Masipula Sithole, said the ruling party used violence and intimidation to protect its turf.
The fact that the opposition was still able to win 9,456 votes in such a district showed the continued resilience of the opposition in the face of "massive use of violence", Mr Sithole said. "The MDC has substantial support in the hinterland of ZANU-PF, in the very heart of a ZANU-PF stronghold," he said.
In addition to Bindura, the MDC has lost two other byelections held this year.
The earlier byelections, in the southern constituency of BikitaWest and in Marondera outside Harare, both ended in victories for ZANU-PF.
Another byelection is due in two months to replace the militant war veteran leader, Chenjerai Hitler Hunzvi, who died in May.