OPINION:If Moscow supports moves to get both sides in Syria talking, there is a chance that democracy may emerge, thinks MARY RUSSELL
A RESOLUTION before the United Nations Security Council, drafted by the Arab League and a number of European countries in a bid to end violence in Syria, is still being discussed.
However, with Russia objecting to any call for regime change or to even a hint of foreign military intervention, it is unlikely it will be adopted in its original form. This may bring comfort to President Bashar al-Assad, who must surely now be nervous about the degree of dissatisfaction expressed daily by his own people.
Only a short while ago, it seemed the tide might be turning for his government. There were, after all, Arab League observers in the main cities. And the president himself, accompanied by his wife and children, performed smiling walkabouts.
His supporters have been shown on TV thronging the Damascene streets. Activists were being released from detention and BBC cameras were allowed into major trouble spots such as Homs and Douma.
On the surface, it looked like a move in the right direction. But did it reflect reality?
Decidedly not.
Assad’s appearances were well choreographed, the applause of his supporters carefully orchestrated. The BBC programme makers were accompanied by minders. The Arab League observers, no more than a token force, had their numbers scaled back from 165 to 100 and have finally been withdrawn. Last week pro-democracy activists succeeded in getting dangerously close to the centre of Damascus.
Formerly friendly Arab states have turned away from Syria, the country’s financial state is bleak, and the original joint European-Arab resolution calls for a political transition including Assad’s resignation. (The suggestion of tougher sanctions has not been included in the draft resolution since it is clear Russia would oppose such a move.)
Civil unrest, strikes and nervous investors have led to reduced oil production – a cause of growing concern to Russia which continues to support its beleaguered satellite.
And why? Because Syria offers the only Mediterranean port where Russian ships can buy oil and refuel without hindrance – a facility significant for Moscow given Nato’s 24 bases just across the Syrian border in Turkey.
Most threatening of all for those in power is the relentless nature of the political activists who, week after week, are on the streets of towns as far apart as Homs and Deir ez-Zour which, though separated by the Syrian desert, share the same aspirations to liberty, demonstrating their shared opposition to the leader of a one-party state whose rule, since 2000, has been characterised by control, oppression and torture.
The days of waiting for some movement towards democracy are over and the mood of pro-democracy activists has hardened, with some calling for the president to be summarily executed.
And while the initial wave of demonstrators were engaged in non-violent action, many are now armed by those who, ironically, once pointed their weapons at the activists but who have since defected from the Syrian security forces, bringing those same weapons with them.
Anyone who has watched videos of the beatings and torture inflicted by government forces on their own people will understand the degree of anger felt by many Syrians towards the president and his government. The fact that the beatings are inflicted openly, by men in the uniform of the Syrian security forces who appear not to care that their brutality is being witnessed worldwide, is itself a reflection of the nature of the situation.
Despite warnings from its Arab neighbours and threats from the UN, Assad’s government has continued on its wayward path, assured that there would be no outside intervention, particularly in light of events in Hama in 1982 when the Muslim Brotherhood was attacked.
Neither Europe nor America has the stomach to get involved militarily in yet another Middle East crisis. They fear that even if some measure of democratic change were to come about, the next government might not prove as friendly as hoped.
Would a new Syria, for instance, be prepared to continue to do business with Russia, or would it look for more lucrative deals elsewhere? What line would a new Syrian government take over the Golan Heights?
There is no doubt that fear fuels the crisis.
“It’s how dictators operate,” says Nadim Shehadi, associate fellow of the Middle East programme at policy institute Chatham House.
“Assad has said that if things fall apart in Syria there will be chaos in the Middle East. Al-Qaeda and extreme Islamism will take over and it will spread. The conspiracy theory works well here. There are, Assad tells the people, outside forces at work. The CIA and Mossad are two. But Dr Assad himself is in denial and clearly does not fully appreciate the extent of the revolt. How can he? He is a dictator and he’s got to believe he is in full control.”
But could it be that Assad is not in control, and that he is a mere puppet of Russia?
“His government’s means of control, by fear, is a classic tool of the old Soviet era,” says Shehadi. “But he is not a puppet, nor is he a victim of any conspiracy theory.”
There are some who, while not supporting the Assad regime, nevertheless fear that a victory for the Muslim Brotherhood – or a version of it – would mean a curtailment of freedom, especially in the area of women participating in society.
Shehadi disagrees: “Personal freedom is already curtailed. People can’t vote for the party of their choice. They can’t freely express their political ideas. They can only travel abroad by agreement with the relevant government department to which they must report on their return.”
In the meantime, there are power cuts and fuel shortages. Travel between towns is dangerous, with bus travel the only relatively safe means of getting about. People are taken way and tortured.
The death toll mounts: 96 on Wednesday, 106 yesterday, with children among the dead. The UN, putting a figure of 5,000 deaths, says it can no longer keep count since the violence is now so widespread.
“If there is no intervention,” says Shehadi, “many more will die.”
The main challenge facing the joint European-Arab push now will be to get Russia on board without watering down the UN resolution too much.
Russia has expressed an interest in supporting a move towards promoting dialogue between the government and pro-democracy supporters, and that can only be good for Syria.
If this does happen, then the people of Syria can start to look towards achieving a freedom for which so many have already died.
Mary Russell's book, My Home is Your Home, A Journey Round Syria, was published in December 2011