The Government has no plans to revise the Dáil constituencies before the next election, in spite of preliminary census figures due out on Wednesday which are expected to show huge disparities in population between constituencies.
The Minister for the Environment and Local Government, Dick Roche, told The Irish Times yesterday that it had never been the practice to use preliminary figures as the basis for redrawing the constituencies.
"The final figures have always been used for constituency revisions and they are not due until next year," said Mr Roche.
Experts have predicted that the preliminary census figures will show more than half of the country's 43 constituencies are well outside the requirement for equal representation. This could expose the current constituency boundaries to legal challenge.
The census will provide details about the population increase over the past five years, which has seen a huge increase in numbers in a ring of constituencies around Dublin. Unless there is a change in constituency boundaries it will mean that constituencies like Dublin West, Meath East, Kildare North and Louth will be seriously under-represented in the next Dáil while Dublin North West, Cavan Monaghan, Kerry North, Sligo Leitrim and Limerick West will be over-represented.
Some TDs, including the Kildare North Independent Catherine Murphy, have said they will consider a legal challenge. If the figures show that one or more constituencies breaches the constitutional limits for the ratio of population to Dáil members a challenge is very likely.
The Constitution specifies that there should be one TD for between every 20,000 and 30,000 people in the country. At present the average is around 25,000 and a variation of a little over 5 per cent above or below that is regarded as acceptable.
However, Wednesday's figures will show some constituencies with a much wider variation. Dublin West is expected to be around 18 per cent over the norm while Dublin North West will come in around 16 per cent below the average.
There is even a chance that the population of the three-seat Dublin West will be over 90,000, in which case the constitutional limit will have been exceeded. By contrast the three seat of Dublin North West will not have much more than 60,000 people.
Fine Gael will not be pressing the Government to change its position. A party spokesman said they were more concerned with sorting out the electoral register than looking for a constituency revision. However, the general secretary of the Progressive Democrats, John Higgins, said if the figures showed big disparities in population then it would be right to establish a new Constituency Commission.