There are 250,000 troops in the Gulf - close to the number apparently needed for war on Iraq, writes Tom Clonan.
The most recent troop deployments to the Gulf suggest that war is imminent. Last week, Britain dispatched over 30,000 troops to the Gulf. This deployment alone represents approximately one quarter of Britain's current military strength. The numbers involved amount to a strong statement of intent.
However, Britain's ability to remain on such a war footing for a prolonged period is in some doubt. With a further 19,000 British troops committed to providing cover for the fire fighters dispute, the British military are stretched to breaking point to meet their security commitments at home, in Northern Ireland and the Balkans. From a military planner's perspective therefore, it would be desirable that an invasion begin sooner rather than later.
The British army units being deployed to the Gulf have been selected carefully with particular tasks in mind. The 7th Armoured Brigade, otherwise known as the Desert Rats, are being deployed with members of the 16th Air Assault Brigade and the 3rd Commando Brigade of the Royal Marines. The armoured elements include members of the Royal Scots Dragoon Guards and the 2nd Royal Tank Regiment equipped with approximately 120 Challenger main battle tanks.
The Royal Marine commandos include members of 45 Commando who have recently seen service with the US Marine Corps in Afghanistan. It is believed that the inter-operability of these units with their American counterparts point to future joint ground operations in Iraq.
The recent concentration of US ground troops to the region through airports such as Shannon has meant that by February, the numbers of British and American troops in the region will reach approximately 250,000.
This is the critical mass required for a major military intervention against Saddam's regime. With such a force assembled, military chiefs in Britain and the USA will be keen to act promptly in order to limit their exposure in an uncertain security climate. The prolonged deployment of such a range of military assets in one theatre brings with it the risk of vulnerability elsewhere. Once such a force has been assembled, for logistical, tactical and strategic reasons the timely commencement of operations will be imperative.
British troops will be particularly concerned if an assault on Basra or Baghdad were delayed until the summer months. Temperatures in the late spring and early summer in Iraq can reach up to 48 degrees centigrade. The performance of troops in armour in such temperatures deteriorates rapidly. British army equipment also degrades rapidly in such conditions.
This was revealed last year in exercises in Oman where up to 50 per cent of British Army Challenger tanks became unserviceable after only four hours of operations. The equipment failure was caused by blocked air filters and plastic engine parts that simply melted in the desert heat. Similar problems were noted with the AS 90 self propelled artillery guns - vital for the support of armoured operations.
Most alarmingly, the British infantry standard weapon, the SA-80 has proven to be most ineffective and unreliable in desert conditions. Among problems reported by British troops was the constant jamming of the weapon due to the corruption of the cocking and locking mechanism by sand and dust.
There were also problems with British Army helicopter support. Up to 55 per cent of Army Lynx helicopters were unserviceable at any one time during exercises in Oman.
With soaring temperatures in Iraq in May, June and July and the accompanying increase in sand and dust brought about by seasonal winds such as the Sharqi and the Shamal, the British will be anxious to execute their mission in Iraq as soon as possible.
Military observers believe that action in the Gulf will commence in late February or early March - approximately a month after Hans Blix makes his preliminary report to the UN Security Council today.
A 40,000 strong assault on Basra by combined elements of the US 1st Marine Expeditionary Force and the Royal Marines of 40, 42 and 45 Commando respectively is believed likely at the beginning of March. Any attacks will follow a period of intensive aerial assault.
Such a time scale would allow for the arrival of sufficient numbers of combat troops to the region followed by a four-week period of intensive joint training and acclimatisation.
British and US military training manuals recommend a four-week acclimatisation period as the optimum for desert conditions. It may be the case that this period of time represents a countdown to war in the Gulf.
Tom Clonan is a retired army officer with experience in the Middle East. He is a fellow of the US-based Inter University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society