THE POLITICAL opposition in Argentina has been left in disarray and scrambling to avoid a wipe-out in October’s presidential election after President Cristina Kirchner scored a resounding victory in a primary vote last weekend.
Ms Kirchner won 50 per cent of the vote, with her four closest challengers taking just over 42 per cent between them, making her the overwhelming favourite to win a second term in two months.
As the size of Ms Kirchner’s victory became clear, leading opposition figures called on the president’s rivals to overcome their differences and present a unity candidate to try and force a run-off round. In October’s election, Mrs Kirchner will need just 45 per cent of the vote, or 40 per cent plus a 10-point lead over her nearest challenger, to secure a second term on the first round of voting.
“The people have massively punished the opposition for not having generated a highly competitive option,” said Federico Pinedo, a congressman for the right-wing PRO party. “Some of the candidates could step down . . . If I were one I would step aside so that the other would have a better chance.”
However, both Ricardo Alfonsín and Eduardo Duhalde, who came second and third respectively with 12 per cent each, say they intend to continue their campaigns.
Mr Alfonsín is the son of former president Raul Alfonsín and is attempting to rebuild the country’s traditional Radical Party, which was shattered following the economic crisis in 2001.
Mr Duhalde, a Peronist like Mrs Kirchner, had as president plucked her husband, Néstor, from political obscurity in 2003 and helped install him as his successor. Later, however, the two were to fall out.
Despite scoring significant victories over Mrs Kirchner’s candidates in recent months in provincial elections in the key provinces of Cordoba and Santa Fe and in the city of Buenos Aires, the opposition has remained weak and divided at the national level.
With Argentina’s political system still fractured following the crisis in 2001, the primary was effectively a state-run opinion poll.
The Peronists presented three candidates under different flags of convenience and voters could cast ballots for any ticket. Mrs Kirchner had a huge advantage as the only candidate with a national presence and a countrywide political machine. More than 60 per cent of those who voted for her came from provinces heavily dependent on fiscal handouts from the federal government.
Both Mr Alfonsín and Mr Duhalde now face a monumental task in trying to close a 38-point gap between them and Mrs Kirchner, who triumphed in 23 of 24 provinces.
She won large majorities in the rustbelt of greater Buenos Aires, the traditional Peronist heartland. She also topped the poll in Vicente López and San Isidro, two of the country’s wealthiest districts.
Voters overlooked high inflation and rampant corruption in the ruling circle with pollsters pointing to a consumer boom funded by generous government handouts as key to her support.
Mrs Kirchner has also received widespread sympathy since the death of her husband and predecessor last year. Moreover, voters expressed scepticism at the opposition’s ability to rule – the last non-Peronist civilian president to complete a full term was the Radical Marcelo T de Alvear in 1928.
A jubilant Mrs Kirchner celebrated her victory by holding her first press conference since early last year. She told reporters that “the Argentinian solution” was being looked at as a possible model for the current financial crisis in developed markets “because what is happening in the world is very similar to what happened in Argentina in 2001”.
In 2001, Argentina declared the world’s largest sovereign debt default. In 2005, Néstor Kirchner forced through a brutal debt restructuring that saw investors lose up to 70 per cent on their investments. Only 75 per cent of bondholders accepted the offer.
On-off talks with the hold-outs has delayed Argentina’s return to capital markets, despite a booming economy driven by global demand for its commodities.