There is no significant evidence of displacement of Irish workers since the influx of migrant workers from new EU member states into the country over the last two years, according to a new ESRI report.
The report, Freedom of Movement for Workers from Central and Eastern Europe: Experiences in Ireland and Sweden, found that the number of firms in Ireland reporting vacancies has increased over the last two years.
However, the report says displacement has the potential to become a major issue if social partners and the Government do not agree new measures such as the protection of workers' rights, strengthening of the Labour Inspectorate and the extension of collective agreements.
The latest figures show that just over 200,000 people from former accession countries - half of them from Poland - registered to work here since the accession of 10 new EU member states in May 2004. There are no reliable figures, however, on the number of such workers still in the country.
The majority of workers are in the construction and manufacturing sectors, which employ more than half of the new workers, while significant numbers are also employed in the hotel and restaurant sector, the report says.
Some union leaders argued earlier this year that data for the manufacturing sector, which showed a decrease in earnings growth from 4.7 per cent in March 2005 to 2.1 per cent in September 2005, showed that unregulated immigration was undermining wages and conditions. This decrease, union leaders argued, occurred as the number of foreign workers increased by 8,000, while the number of Irish workers fell by 19,400 between September 2004 and 2005, the report adds.
However, ESRI authors Nicola Doyle, Gerard Hughes and Eskil Wadensjö said this evidence was "circumstantial" and that the decrease may be due to other factors, such as seasonal changes in employment. A similar trend was observed in other industries in 2002 and 2003, before the increase in immigration from accession countries.
If there was displacement on a significant scale, the authors say it should be represented in falling vacancies or rising unemployment.
However, the proportion of firms reporting vacancies has risen from 10.6 per cent in May 2004 to 16.7 per cent in February 2006.
In the manufacturing sector, 18.9 per cent of firms reported vacancies in May 2004, while 22.2 per cent reported vacancies in February 2006.
The report concludes: "On the evidence available to date, displacement does not appear to be a source of disturbance in the labour market."
However, it says, high-profile cases of Irish workers being replaced by foreign workers earning lower rates of pay indicate that the problem has the potential to become a bigger issue unless sufficient steps are taken to educate migrant workers about their rights and adequate protections are put in place for all workers.