Grudge match adds edge in unionist constituency

Election battles take on greater interest when there is a sharp personal edge to proceedings

Election battles take on greater interest when there is a sharp personal edge to proceedings. In the fairly well-to-do - and in parts strikingly beautiful - constituency of Strangford we have a real grudge match: Iris Robinson against John Taylor; the Ulster Unionist Party versus the DUP; pro-agreement unionists eyeball to eyeball with anti-agreement unionists.

There is genuine animosity between the two camps. Ms Robinson with her two councillor colleagues, Mr Jim Shannon and Mr Tommy Jeffers, reckons she can eat into Mr Taylor's vote. Her intention is to overthrow the UUP's ascendancy in Strangford, or at least to shake the sitting MP's confidence.

Mr Taylor is taking a little break before starting the Strangford stomp. He doesn't like to peak too early.

Ms Robinson is all too eager to badmouth her UUP opponent. "Mr Taylor is a man who did not keep his word," she says. "He has reneged on his promises on prisoners, decommissioning and other issues." That's the line she and her running mates and canvassing teams will be hammering on the doorsteps: Mr Taylor and the UUP are soft on safeguarding the Union, the DUP is resolute in its defence.

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The same argument will be put by Mr Cedric Wilson of the UK Unionist Party who, based on previous results, will be hard-pressed to take a seat, although he argues his party is on the rise in Strangford.

Mr Tom Hamilton (43), a teacher from Newtownards and chairman of the UUP Strangford constituency association, is standing for the UUP with Mr Taylor, a prominent Orangeman, Mr David McNarry, and his fellow Ards councillor, Mr Tom Benson. All are pro-agreement.

Based on the Westminster figures when Mr Taylor polled 44 per cent, Ms Robinson 30 per cent and Mr Kieran McCarthy for Alliance 13 per cent, Strangford would return three UUP Assembly members, two DUP and one Alliance.

The forum figures would make it more difficult for the UUP, but nonetheless transfers from pro-agreement parties such as the Progressive Unionist Party, Ulster Democratic Party and SDLP should give it the advantage.

Mr McCarthy, a Catholic draper from Kircubbin on the Ards Peninsula who has an Alliance running mate in Mr Peter Osborne, a businessman, should take a seat. He says the "changed atmosphere in Northern Ireland" might result in Alliance winning a second, but the PR system of voting would have to operate in a very eccentric fashion for that to happen.

Strangford is a mainly Protestant, conservative, rural constituency, with Kircubbin and nearby Portaferry, home of some good Down hurlers, holding the bulk of the Catholic population.

Two SDLP candidates, Mr Danny McCarthy from Portaferry and Mr Brian Hanvey from the outskirts of Belfast, will hope to increase their party's 7 per cent share of the vote, but neither is likely to be entering the Assembly, unless there is a major shedding of Catholic Alliance voters to the SDLP.

Mr Richard Johnston of the PUP, Mr Blakely McNally of the UDP, Mr Thomas Beattie of the Conservative Party and Mr Paddy McGreevy of Sinn Fein will all be striving to improve their parties' previous electoral positions.

Strangford Candidates

UUP: John Taylor, Tom Hamilton, David McNarry, Tom Benson. DUP: Iris Robinson, Jim Shannon, Tommy Jeffers. Alliance: Kieran McCarthy, Peter Osborne. SDLP: Danny McCarthy, Brian Hanvey. UK Unionist: Cedric Wilson. Sinn Fein: Paddy McGreevy. PUP: Richard Johnston. UDP: Blakely McNally. Conservative Party: Thomas Beattie.

Westminster election 1997 UUP, 44 per cent. DUP , 30 per cent. Alliance, 13 per cent. SDLP, 7 per cent. Conservative Party, 4 per cent. Sinn Fein, 1.2 per cent. Natural Law Party, 0.3 per cent. (UK Unionist Party, PUP and UDP, who are running in this election, contested the forum election of 1996 respectively polling 8 per cent, 5 per cent and 3 per cent.)

Prediction: Three UUP; Two DUP; One Alliance.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times