ANALYSIS:Contrary to much media speculation, McGuinness is not doing particularly well among Fianna Fáil voters, writes STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor
WITH THREE weeks to go, the race for the Áras appears to be between three candidates, Michael D Higgins, Seán Gallagher and Martin McGuinness, who have put a wide gap between themselves and the remaining four contenders in the field, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
For Gay Mitchell and David Norris, the poll is little short of a disaster. The Fine Gael candidate has haemorrhaged support since the last poll in July and it is difficult to see how he will get back among the contenders, even if the party puts in a strong campaign on his behalf.
Norris has lost even more support and would also appear to be in an impossible position at this stage. Mary Davis has remained stuck on 12 per cent and does not appear to be getting much traction, while Dana Rosemary Scallon trails the field as expected.
The big surprise of the poll is the performance of Gallagher, who is now in with a realistic chance of winning the office if he can maintain the momentum he has generated in the past few weeks.
With the result to be decided on transfers, Higgins is still in the strongest position at this stage but he can take nothing for granted as Gallagher and McGuinness have momentum behind them.
If Gallagher is in second place and close to Higgins when it comes to the final count, he could entertain realistic hopes of pulling into the lead on McGuinness transfers.
The Sinn Féin candidate has made a huge impact on the campaign since he entered the race. He will also be hoping to make it to the last count but he will need a significant increase in his first-preference tally to achieve that, as he is much less transfer-friendly than the other leading candidates.
As well as leading in terms of first-preference votes, Higgins is also ahead when it comes to second preferences, and that should give him the cushion he needs to remain ahead if he leads the field on the first count.
Higgins is picking up 43 per cent of Mitchell’s second preferences, far more than any other candidate, and he is getting 28 per cent of the Norris second preferences.
Gallagher does best among McGuinness’s second preferences and also does well from Davis. To have a chance of winning, though, he will probably need to be significantly ahead of the Labour candidate on the first count.
Higgins’s support is evenly spread across all social categories and across all regions of the country. He is weakest among the youngest 18-to-24 age group, where he attracts only 11 per cent support but he is strongest among the over-65s, where he is at 34 per cent.
In terms of party support, Higgins gets the backing of 39 per cent of Labour voters but he does well among Fine Gael voters where he gets the backing of 29 per cent on the first count.
Support for McGuinness is rock solid among Sinn Féin voters, where he gets 71 per cent support. Among male voters, he gets 28 per cent support but among women he is attracting just 11 per cent.
McGuinness’s strongest support comes from working-class and younger voters and he is weakest among middle-class and older voters, who are more likely to vote. In regional terms he is strongest in Munster and Connacht Ulster and weakest in Dublin.
Contrary to much of the media comment, the poll suggests that McGuinness is not doing particularly well among Fianna Fáil voters. He attracts just 13 per cent of that party’s voters despite the fact that there is no Fianna Fáil candidate in the field.
When voters were asked if McGuinness’s membership of the IRA should prevent him from becoming president, 41 per cent said it should while 51 per cent said it should not.
As with Sinn Féin support, there was a wide variation in terms of age and class on this issue, with older and middle-class voters significantly more inclined to say that the candidate’s IRA background was an obstacle.
One of the reasons for Gallagher’s increased support is that he is the candidate most attractive to Fianna Fáil voters, but he is picking up a reasonable amount of support across the political spectrum.
In class terms Gallagher is almost equally strong across all groups but he is strongest among the best-off voters. He does very well among young and middle-aged voters but is weakest among the older voters.
By contrast, support for Norris has dropped steeply since July. He has lost more than half of his earlier support and will have great difficulty getting back into the leading bunch.
When voters were asked if the letters he wrote to authorities in Israel and Ireland seeking clemency for his former partner should prevent him from becoming president, 43 per cent said they should and 46 per cent said they should not.
Older voters were much more inclined than the younger age groups to say the letters should prevent Norris from becoming president, and the issue has clearly damaged his chances of winning the office.
The fall in support for Mitchell over the past two months has left his campaign in a very difficult position. Even among his own party supporters he is getting only 21 per cent and he trails Higgins, who is getting 29 per cent backing from Fine Gael voters.
If Mitchell wins only 9 per cent on polling day it will be a disaster for Fine Gael and will throw its general election triumph in February into a new light.
The Davis campaign will be disappointed that she remains stuck on 12 per cent since July despite a strong campaign on the airwaves and in terms of posters. The danger she faces is that support could slip further in the final weeks as momentum builds behind other candidates.
It will be no surprise that Dana Rosemary Scallon is at 6 per cent, given her very late entry into the contest. She is strongest in Connacht/Ulster where she is on 10 per cent and she has the same level of support among farmers.