Florida poll for governor could be the key to 2004 presidential race

US: With control of the two houses of the US Congress at stake in tomorrow's mid-term elections, the fight in Florida over who…

US: With control of the two houses of the US Congress at stake in tomorrow's mid-term elections, the fight in Florida over who gets to live in the governor's mansion for the next two years should be a sideshow at best.

But this weekend both parties threw their full resources into the state in a revival of the blood feud of the 2000 election, and in anticipation of the battle for the White House in 2004.

Both President George W. Bush and former president Bill Clinton campaigned in the state one last time to influence the result of the bitter duel between the President's brother, Governor Jeb Bush, and his Democratic challenger, lawyer Mr Bill McBride.

It was President Bush's 12th visit to support Jeb in a contest crucial to Republican hopes of retaining the Presidency in two years, which will be made easier if the President's brother is still governor.

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Introducing the President in Tampa, Jeb Bush observed: "You've got Bill Clinton in the state, you've got Al Gore in the state, Jesse Jackson's in the state, Al Sharpton's in the state. You could multiply that by 50, and I would take one George W. Bush".

Mr Clinton tried to energise the minority and labour turnout when he told an audience of blacks and union members in Miami: "If you don't vote this time because of what happened last time, it's like taking your vote away twice."

Mr Gore, campaigning yesterday with Mr McBride, made the 36-day Florida vote recount in 2000, which lost him the White House, the core of his appeal to Democrats. "If anybody ever tells you that one vote doesn't count, talk to me about it," he said.

Both sides have invested so much in Florida that it will be a major political setback for the loser. The latest polls show Jeb Bush leading Bill McBride by 49 to 43 per cent, making it an uphill struggle for the Democrats' plan of defeating one Bush brother after another.

The Democratic challenge stalled after Mr McBride failed during a televised debate on October 22nd to satisfactorily answer questions about how he would pay for his plan to reduce class sizes in public schools, a major issue in the campaign.

In the battle for control of Congress, Republicans will have trouble winning back a Senate majority, but Democrats face stiffer odds in their attempt to regain the House of Representatives. A Washington Post survey concluded that the country was still as evenly divided as in 2000.

It said the Republican Party would have to win three of four toss-up races to emerge with 50 seats and allow Vice-President Dick Cheney's tie-breaking vote to prevail. Democrats, who need a net gain of six seats, would have to win all the tightest House contests, and eight of the 24 now rated as leaning towards Republicans, to reach that target.

The most likely shift of political power will be in governorships, with Democrats expected to make major gains, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Illinois. The weak economy and huge deficits in state budgets have created more volatility than in the elections for the House and Senate.

In Minnesota, Democrat Walter Mondale will debate Republican, Norm Coleman this morning, less than 24 hours before the polls open. Mr Mondale stepped in to replace Senator Paul Wellstone, who was killed in an air crash.

President Bush arrived in the state yesterday to support Mr Coleman at a rally in St Paul in his attempt to deliver a crushing defeat to an elder statesman of the Democratic Party. Mr Mondale enjoys a narrow lead in the polls.