Fine Gael needs a good result in next year's European election. Events this week have not helped, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
Just a few days ago Fine Gael looked, in public at least, as if it had the dream ticket for the European Parliament election next June.
Two former leaders, Mr John Bruton and Mr Michael Noonan, would carry the party's standard in Dublin and Munster, respectively.
The presence of such titans in the field would guarantee victory, pundits observed, a major boost for the man who has taken the chalice of leadership after them, Mr Enda Kenny.
The situation, however, changed in 24 hours. First, Michael Noonan said he had thought about spending five years shuttling between Limerick, Brussels and Strasbourg and had decided against it.
In Dunboyne, Co Meath, Mr Bruton finally decided that he would not stand, despite a lifelong interest in matters European, most recently in the Convention on the Future of Europe.
Both men had been asked specifically to put their hats in the ring by Mr Kenny and by Fine Gael's director of elections, the Carlow/Kilkenny TD Mr Phil Hogan.
The positive spin to all of this, and there is one, is easily assembled. Both men still fancy that they have a role to play in Irish public life.
Following a quiet year after his savaging in the general election, Mr Noonan has begun to return to the political stage in recent weeks. "The general election hurt him very badly, and it hurt his family. He needed time to himself, and he wanted to give Enda a chance to settle in," said one colleague.
This week, however, Mr Noonan featured twice in the news headlines, commenting on both the Limerick gangland crisis and the building of the Punchestown exhibition centre.
Mr Bruton is even more experienced on the European stage and is already a well-known figure among the EU's Christian Democrats. Private opinion polls already taken by some of the parties in Dublin showed him figuring strongly. "In one of them, he was 19 per cent ahead of everybody else," said a Fianna Fáil TD.
However, Mr Bruton's knowledge of the system may have been the key to his refusal. "He would have, almost certainly, become a vice-president of the parliament. But so what? He knows from his own time as Taoiseach and later what kind of real power lies there. Very little," said one Brussels-based EU source.
Now that they are gone from the scene, the attention will turn to others. In Munster, two Cork TDs, Mr Bernard Allen and Mr Simon Coveney, could be in the frame. So far, both are keeping their cards close to their chests, although the impression remains that neither would be prepared to sacrifice all for life as an MEP. Furthermore, both would have a decent chance of a ministerial job of some shape if Fine Gael were to form part of the next government.
Now aged 59, Mr Allen wanted the MEP job once - in 1994, when he stood and was badly beaten by Prof Tom Raftery at the party's Euro selection convention.
To this day, Allen loyalists blame Fine Gael's outgoing MEP, Mr John Cushnahan, for the Cork North-Central TD's defeat. "He did not want Bernard to run," said one party member.
However, Mr Allen's departure to Brussels - if he managed to win one of the three seats available in Munster - would make life difficult in Cork North-Central.
In place in the constituency for 23 years, he would be hard to replace, particularly at a time when Fine Gael's urban vote nationally has shown all the signs of a long-term decline.
The youthful Mr Coveney, on other hand, has Deirdre Clune ready and waiting to take his Dáil place, although some in the party believe that he is needed for high-profile domestic duty.
Meanwhile, the party has genuine difficulties in Dublin if it is to retain the seat now held by Ms Mary Banotti, who is finally stepping down after 20 years in the job.
Left without Bruton, Fine Gael's eyes will turn, reluctantly in some cases, to a list of candidates led by the former minister for justice, Mrs Nora Owen. Defeated in May 2002, Mrs Owen has been more visible around Leinster House in recent months. "She has not been asked to run, but she isn't waiting to be," one TD believed.
Two other defeated general election candidates, a barrister, Mr Colm O hEochaidh, and a former TD, Ms Frances Fitzgerald, are tipped as possible candidates, although both seem more likely to use the race to boost their profile for the next Dáil election.
"It isn't much use to anybody if you have candidates who spend their time in Dublin South-East rather than throughout the constituency. This is a constituency that Fine Gael has to win. Otherwise, there will be problems," said one party figure.