Fine Gael and Labour have received significant boosts in support as Fianna Fáil has fallen to its lowest rating for almost two years, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll.Fine Gael+3%Labour+2%Fianna Fáil-6%
Fianna Fáil support has fallen 6 percentage points to 32 per cent since the last such poll in February. Fine Gael has gained 3 points to 25 per cent, its highest for over five years. Labour has also put on 2 points to 14 per cent.
Satisfaction with the Government and the Taoiseach have also fallen significantly. A majority, 51 per cent, is dissatisfied with the Government's performance, up 9 points. Some 42 per cent are satisfied, down 9, and an unchanged 7 per cent have no opinion.
Mr Ahern's personal rating at 54 per cent is down 4 percentage points since the last poll in February. Some 39 per cent are dissatisfied, up 3 and 7 per cent have no opinion, up 1.
The state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 32 per cent, down 6 points since the last poll in February; Fine Gael 25 per cent, up 3; Labour 14 per cent, up 2; Sinn Féin 11 per cent, up 2; Green Party 4 per cent, unchanged; Progressive Democrats 4 per cent, up 1; Independents and others 9 per cent, down 3.
The core support for the parties is Fianna Fáil 31 per cent, down 5; Fine Gael 19 per cent, up 2; Labour 10 per cent, up 1; Sinn Féin 9 per cent, up 2; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 4 per cent, up 1; Others 8 per cent, down 2.
Some 16 per cent were undecided or had no opinion, down 1.
The poll was conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday among a national quota sample of 1,000 voters throughout all constituencies in the State.
The parties to a possible alternative coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party now have combined support of 43 per cent, compared to 36 per cent for the current Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrats combination. On these figures, however, both combinations would probably be short of what is required to form a majority government.
However, the poll will be particularly satisfying for the Labour Party leader, Pat Rabbitte, in the wake of his party conference's decision a fortnight ago to seek a pre-election voting and policy pact with Fine Gael. Mr Rabbitte has consistently argued that a pact would boost both main opposition parties, and this poll provides some evidence for this.
The Fianna Fáil vote has fallen back to the low levels it received when accused of breaking promises after the 2002 election. It dramatically ends the steady improvement in the party's fortunes since last summer's Cabinet reshuffle and recasting of the party's image as socially concerned.
Sinn Féin support has climbed back to the 11 per cent level it was at last January, before the dip to 9 per cent seen in February following the political outcry over the Northern Bank robbery and McCartney killing.
The rise in Gerry Adams's personal approval rating from 30 to 38 per cent since February also suggests that some of the damage done to the party after those incidents was short-term. However, he is still considerably below the 51 per cent approval he received last October.
Some 41 per cent are satisfied with the performance of Tánaiste Mary Harney, a fall of 6 points. There are 50 per cent dissatisfied, up 6, and an unchanged 9 per cent has no opinion.
Despite his party's significant improvement, Enda Kenny's satisfaction rating as party leader has fallen 4 points to 41 per cent. Some 29 per cent are dissatisfied, up 1 point, and 30 per cent have no opinion, up 3.
Mr Rabbitte's satisfaction rating has risen 3 points to 48 per cent, with 25 per cent dissatisfied, down 3 and 27 per cent have no opinion, unchanged.
The Green Party leader Trevor Sargent scores his highest satisfaction rating since the autumn 2002 Nice referendum campaign when he had a particularly high profile. Some 38 per cent are satisfied, up 3, 23 per cent are dissatisfied, down 2, and 40 per cent have no opinion, down 1.