FF's third Laois Offaly seat up for grabs as TDs bow out

THERE is a marked contrast between the tidy prosperity of Tullamore and the bleak desolation of many rural areas in the Laois…

THERE is a marked contrast between the tidy prosperity of Tullamore and the bleak desolation of many rural areas in the Laois Offaly constituency.

The "downsizing" of the Electricity Supply Board and Bord na Mona has resulted in widespread unemployment in traditional peat harvesting areas. At the same time multinationals have brought an influx of jobs to Tullamore.

Fianna Fail has traditionally had a strong base among Bord na Mona and ESB employees. It has won three seats out of five in all seven general elections since 1977 and at 51.82 per cent it took the party's second highest are of first preferences in any constituency in 1992.

One of the party's most colourful characters and a LTD for Laois Offaly since 1969, Ger Connolly was expected to run in his 10th general election next time. It came as a complete surprise even to party activists when he announced last week hem was stepping down.

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There were emotional scenes in Glennon's Lounge at Clonbullogue in south Offaly when the former minister of state for the environment broke the shock news.

Party old timers who had campaigned for Connolly for decades were lost for words. But better to go in dignity than in defeat Connolly's vote was down in the general election and he only squeezed in on the 10th count.

Connolly was the seventh Fianna Fail TD to announce his retirement from the Dail. Fortunately for the party, most of them were in constituencies where it has strong support and stands a reasonable chance, or better, of retaining the seat.

Another Fianna Fail TD in Laois Offaly, Liam Hyland, had previously announced his departure. The former minister of state for agriculture was elected to the European Parliament in 1994 and, in line with party rules, had to choose between the Dail and Strasbourg before the next Irish general election.

The result is that only one of three sitting Fianna Fail TDs will be contesting next time out. The party holds its selection convention at Tullamore's Bridge House on November 18th and four candidates will be chosen two each from Cos Laois and Offaly.

In the ease of Laois, it is not so much six characters in search of an author as six party members chasing two nominations.

County councillor John Moloney from Mountmellick polled an impressive 5,018 first preference in the last general election and must have been one of the few defeated candidates to be chaired from the polling station by elated supporters.

Moloney is seen as a virtual certainty to take the Hyland seat. ,There is intense rivalry for second place on the Laois ticket between Sean Fleming, who commutes from his home near Mountrath to his job as financial director at Fianna Fail's Mount Street headquarters in Dublin, and county councillors Kieran Phelan, Jerry Lodge, Mary Wheatley and Tom Jacob.

Over the county border in Offaly it was assumed that Connolly and former transport minister, Brian Cowen, would be automatically re selected. The race to succeed Connolly is only now getting under way.

Names being mentioned include county councillors Noel Bourke, who is a Bord na Mona employee, Frank Weir and Ray Cribben, as well as the vice chairman of Edenderry Town Commissioners, Fergus McDonnell.

Cowen looks a safe bet to top the poll again despite his loss of the transport, energy and communications portfolio when the Reynolds led government collapsed. His old combative self has reemerged in the BSE crisis and the "articulate Rottweiler" image seems to go down well with the voters.

Connolly's departure has implications for other parties a prime beneficiary could be Senator Cathy Honan of the Progressive Democrats who will be making her fourth bid to become the first woman TD for Laois Offaly.

The PD health spokeswoman underwent surgery herself recently but is now well on the road to recovery. Laois Offaly is a PD "target" and art leader Mary Harney has made several visits to the constituency, with another one due shortly.

Ms Honan's home base of Portarlington was also a strong area of support for Ger Connolly, and observers say she could pick up a good proportion of his vote, especially given the present cosy state of Fianna Fail PD relations and the fact that she was previously a member of Fianna Fail.

Labour's Pat Gallagher is based in Tullamore but has made strenuous efforts to broaden his base outside the town. He came in on the crest of the Labour wave in 1992 but even opponents in other parties acknowledge he is a hard grafter with a special gift for publicising decisions by Labour Ministers that have benefited the constituency.

He is pulling out all the stops to keep the seat despite the inevitable ebbing of the Labour tide and the party's relative weakness in the constituency.

Fine Gael is seen as certain to retain a seat and will be fighting to win back the second one.

Charles Flanagan, son of the legendary Oliver J. was a narrow winner over his party colleague Tom Enright last time, partly thanks to Ms Honan's transfers.

Observers say Flanagan has consolidated his position, and his chairmanship of the Dail's Legislation and Security Committee has raised his profile with voters. Mr Enright is now a senator and has been a faithful attender of funerals as well as a regular guest on local radio.

If he can't overtake Flanagan he should be in the "shake out" for a seat against Gallagher, Honan and a third Fianna Fail candidate.

Although the date of the general election is not known, senior political sources expect it to be in June or October. When all the candidates have been chosen, Laois Offaly will be one of the hardest constituencies to predict, it's virtual certain Fianna Fail will win two seats and that there will be war to the knife for the other three.