Favourite in Chilean poll looks short of target

CHILE: Chile will choose on Sunday between a candidate who could be the first woman president for Latin America's star economy…

CHILE: Chile will choose on Sunday between a candidate who could be the first woman president for Latin America's star economy and two hopefuls from the right-wing that has been out of power since 1990.

Michelle Bachelet, who was imprisoned and tortured under the 1973-1990 Augusto Pinochet dictatorship, leads polls, but the Socialist party candidate could fall short of 50 per cent of votes and head to a January run-off that will likely be a tight race with one of the opposition candidates.

Polls show conservative former mayor of Santiago Joaquin Lavin and the centre-right candidate Sebastian Pinera (a former senator and one of Chile's wealthiest men) are tied for second place and have enough support to force a second round.

"This election is not going to be resolved on Sunday," said Andres Passicot, director of Gemines Consultores, a business consulting, market study and polling firm. "A second round is going to be necessary and no one knows which of the rightist candidates will pass to that round."

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Ms Bachelet, a former defence minister and doctor, has campaigned on continuing the free-market economic policies and liberal social programmes of popular president Ricardo Lagos, who cannot run for immediate re-election.

While her social policies are more liberal than Chile's conservative elite, business leaders trust Ms Bachelet will stick to the ruling coalition's economic programme including fiscal discipline and trade pacts with countries all over the world.

"We found no major fears about the eventual electoral outcome, as the main presidential hopefuls agree with the current macroeconomic principles," wrote Credit Suisse First Boston economist Alonso Cervera in a report. Mr Cervera said that since Ms Bachelet's support has slipped in recent opinion polls, her win is no longer guaranteed.

Mr Lavin - who almost won the presidency in a close race with Mr Lagos six years ago - and Mr Pinera, have both attacked the ruling coalition over rising crime and stubbornly high rates of unemployment.

Under three centre-left governments from a coalition that grew out of opposition to Pinochet, Chile has prospered to the brink of becoming a developed nation.

Mr Lagos leaves a booming economy - thanks to record high prices for copper (the country's main export) and strong demand for products such as wood pulp, wine, salmon and fertiliser.