EU economists upbeat despite sluggish growth

Europe's economy lost much of what spark it had in the second quarter of 2005 as Germany failed to reproduce the growth that …

Europe's economy lost much of what spark it had in the second quarter of 2005 as Germany failed to reproduce the growth that made up for recession in Italy earlier in the year.

But economists stuck to the view that a moderate recovery is in the pipeline in mainland Europe despite a poor performance in the three months to end-June, scenting recovery in the details of the data and more up-to-date surveys of business conditions.

Gross domestic product in Europe's largest economy stagnated at first-quarter levels, and the Federal Statistics Office scaled down its estimate of growth for the first three months, to 0.8 per cent from 1.0 per cent.

The Netherlands, whose fortunes are closely linked to the German economy, reported an apparently strong comeback with quarterly growth of 1.2 per cent in the second quarter after its economy shrank 0.8 per cent in the first.

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Spain, the largest of the mid-sized euro zone economies and more dynamic in recent years, announced an expected 0.9 percent quarterly rise in GDP for the second quarter.

Second-quarter data is due from Italy well as an overall growth estimate for the 12-nation euro zone, ahead of what are expected to be weak French figures on tomorrow, and a GDP report in Japan that is expected to show improvement.

The euro zone second-quarter figure was forecast by analysts to hit about 0.2 per cent on a quarterly basis and one economist suggested the first-quarter figure might be revised down to 0.4 from 0.5 per cent after Germany's revision.

Elsewhere, Switzerland reported a steeper-than-expected drop in consumer confidence in July as the third quarter got going, with an index issued by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs sliding to -15 from -9.

Oil prices, considered one of the main threats to growth, hit a record of more than $65 per barrel last night, driven by speculation over supplies needed to meet US demand and Saudi Arabia's long-running battle with al-Qaeda militants.

That's roughly $20 higher than a year ago and is starting to spark concern among households and businesses as it raises the price of energy for industry, home heating and transport.