Ending months of speculation, the Communist Party of China announced last night that it will hold its first policy-making congress in five years on September 12th. The 15th Party Congress is expected to last a week and consolidate the leadership of party general secretary, President Jiang Zemin.
The congress will also be asked to legitimise new forms of private ownership to take the world's most populous country further along the path to a market-oriented economy.
The 1,500 delegates will select a new 200-strong Central Committee and determine China's political and economic path into the 21st century. It will be the first in 20 years without the guiding hand of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, but will almost certainly endorse his open-door policy. Consensus on the way ahead is usually reached before a date for the Communist Party Congress is announced.
The Prime Minister, Mr Li Peng, has signalled that political change, not just economic reform, will be on the agenda for the congress. During a trip to Singapore on Monday, Mr Li said "foreign friends" had the mistaken impression that Beijing was pursuing only economic reforms. "It's just a misunderstanding, as economic and political reform are being carried out in China," he said.
It was the first high-level indication that this congress would consider the sensitive topic of political change. Debate on political reform has been stifled in China since the crushing of the student pro-democracy movement in 1989. Recently however village democracy was introduced, with free elections for leaders in rural communities.
The congress will take place in a stable atmosphere, which will benefit Mr Jiang, who is widely seen as a bridge between the old era of revolutionaries and an emerging new generation of technocrats.
With faith in communist ideology weakened among the masses by pro-market economic reforms, the leadership has to confirm its legitimacy through competence in government. The president can point to low inflation, a smooth transfer of sovereignty in Hong Kong, and improved relations with the United States as evidence that the present leadership is following the correct path. Mr Jiang will meet President Clinton in Washington this autumn.
There is no sign of co-ordinated political opposition to the Chinese Communist Party, and the leaders of the dissident movement are all in prison or exile. There is, however, a prospect that mass unemployment due to the closure of bankrupt state enterprises could result in labour unrest and there have been isolated disturbances.
Mr Jiang, having apparently sidelined the "leftists" in an internal struggle since Deng's death in February, is expected to persuade the congress to water down the principle of the dominance of public ownership and promote a share-holding system to increase privatisation. Orthodox Marxists opposed him on the grounds that the reforms initiated by Deng in 1978 allowed the gap between rich and poor to widen.
Policy debates have been taking place all summer among the Chinese leaders, stimulated by the need to reach consensus before the congress. Several key posts have almost certainly been determined in advance.
Mr Li is obliged under the constitution to step down next year as prime minister and is likely to be replaced at the number two leadership spot by Mr Zhu Rongji (68). Mr Zhu was hand-picked by Deng Xiaoping at the last congress in 1992 to liberalise the economy. He has strengthened his position by bringing inflation under control.
Mr Li could remain in the top leadership by taking the post of Chairman of the People's National Congress (China's parliament), a position held by a rival of President Jiang, Mr Qiao Shi. It is widely rumoured in Beijing that Mr Jiang would like Mr Qiao to step down and accept the number four position in the Politburo.
There has been a flurry of personnel changes in recent days, with old-guard party members being replaced by pro-Jiang loyalists, who will help him consolidate his authority in a political system when contacts can be more important than titles.
A key Jiang supporter, Beijing mayor, Mr Jia Qinglin (57), was promoted to Beijing party secretary on Monday, and will be elevated to the Politburo at the congress. Several other party members in their late 50s have been promoted in line with the policy of advancing a younger generation to replace the current "bridge" age group. The leadership is currently dominated by men in their 70s.
Congresses are used by the leadership to announce and legitimise major decisions. The 14th congress in 1992 gave a major boost to market-oriented changes. Before that the 1987 congress legitimised non-state ownership.
Taiwan's ruling Nationalist Party said yesterday it had received a telegram from Beijing congratulating the party on the success of its congress and expressing willingness to hold talks with the island. Taiwan leaders held out an olive branch to China at Monday's opening of the party congress.