The increase in official crime figures seems dramatic, but the truth may be more complicated, writes Carol Coulter, Legal Affairs Correspondent
The figures for serious, or "headline" crime, announced by the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, yesterday make sobering reading, and he did not pull any punches.
The total increase was 22 per cent, with certain categories showing bigger increases, notably sexual offences and assaults, all up by over 50 per cent.
The news is actually much worse, as this is the second year in a row in which the crime figures have rocketed. If we take the 2000 figures and compare them with those announced yesterday, the incidence of some categories of crime has gone up by as much as 400 per cent, with serious assaults increasing almost three-fold and sexual offences also trebling.
A few figures illustrate the apparent gravity of the problem. There were 1,988 serious assaults in 2000, and 5,688 last year; sexual offences increased from 1,070 in 2000 to 3,147 last year; arson attacks were up from 880 to 1,493 in two years; drug offences went up from 1,807 in 2000 to 2,934 in 2002; larcenies were up from 39,539 to 53,100 and burglaries went up by a more modest amount, from 22,158 to 25,511.
Fraud offences apparently increased by over 50 per cent, but some of this is undoubtedly due to the fact that the Theft and Fraud Offences Act, with new offences, was enacted in 2002. Some of the increases may be due to improved detection, which is certainly the case in relation to the dramatic increase in arrests for child pornography, due to Operation Amethyst. Others increases, like the figure for instances of child neglect and cruelty, up from 79 in 2001 to 182 in 2002, may be due to better child protection practices and better liaison between social services and the Gardaí.
Mr McDowell also pointed out yesterday that our population has increased, so the crime rate (per 1,000 of the population) has risen less sharply than it would appear. On this basis, the crime rate in 2002 was 27.02 per 1,000 of the population, compared with 27.79 per 1,000 in 1996. Between 1996 and 2000 the crime rate fell dramatically, so there has still been a real increase in the actual crime rate over the past two years.
But a note of caution on the figures was sounded yesterday by one of Ireland's leading experts on crime. Dr Ian O'Donnell, of the Institute of Criminology in UCD, and a member of the recently-established Expert Group on Crime Statistics, told The Irish Times: "Major swings often reflect changes in reporting or recording crime rather than real change. It is particularly difficult to interpret trends when you only have police data. We are starved of alternative sources of information, like victimisation surveys. People's behaviour does not change that suddenly."
He suggested that one of the explanations for at least some of the increase is the PULSE. This is the new computerised recording system introduced by the Garda two years ago, which changed the method of recording crime, and which he said is probably only properly bedding down now.
It has undoubtedly meant more comprehensive recording of crime, and this will produce an increase in recorded crimes, varying according to the type of offence.
Murders and serious assaults, for example, are likely to have been as well recorded under the old, manual system as they are under PULSE, while certain other crimes, like public order offences, are likely to be more thoroughly noted now.
The fact remains that serious assaults, sexual offences, drug offences and larcenies have all increased sharply over the past two years. Even allowing for the fact that some of the sexual offences reported are historic, the absolute year-on-year increase is dramatic.
This increase in violent and sexual crime has happened despite a sharp rise in the number of prison places, and despite an increase in Garda resources in recent years.
The Minister stressed yesterday that policy would be based on proper research, rather than "hunches or knee-jerk reactions". But if his approach does not lead to real reductions in violent crime, he will not be quickly forgiven.
