THE way things are going, the Rainbow Coalition will become the most popular Government ever to lose a general election.
With less than a week to go, the replacement Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats option is still favoured by an unchanged margin of six points over the Fine Gael/ Labour Party/Democratic Left Government. And a gap of 10 points separates the combined strength of the parties.
There are a few tiny glimmers of hope for John Bruton and the Rainbow. The opposition parties' lead has dropped from 12 to 10 points in the past nine days. And the Government's satisfaction rating has risen by a further three points, to 57 per cent, making this the most popular Coalition in recent history to face the electorate. At the same time, the personal satisfaction ratings of all three Rainbow leaders have risen.
But satisfaction ratings and rising personal popularity graphs don't win elections. Party support is the rock on which governments are founded. And Fianna Fail has managed to drop only a single point of its opening support level in this election. The Progressive Democrats have done likewise.
By contrast, support for Fine Gael and Democratic Left has remained static and Lab our has fallen one point.
The slight drift away from the two coalition arrangements has been towards Independents, the Green Party and Sinn Fe in.
Support for the Green Party has jumped to 9 per cent in Dublin and its support has risen to 4 per cent overall. If it maintains this growth curve, the party could return to the Dail with four or five seats and it could hold the balance of power. Independents are expected to do well. And Sinn Fe in is a threatening presence.
As usual, Dublin presents most of the surprises in this opinion poll. Not alone is the Green Party threatening a breakthrough of the kind that gave it two seats in the European elections of 1994 but there are serious shifts in the balance of power between the other parties. Fianna Fail will be dismayed by its showing of 34 per cent in Dublin, down five points, and close to its disastrous 1992 performance. But with Bertie Ahern storming, ahead to the top of the leaders popularity rating, that figure may prove to be a temporary blip.
The Lab our Party threatens to be the biggest loser on the basis of the Dublin figures. It emerges with a support level of only 10 per cent, lower than its national average of 11 per cent and down from 2 per cent at the start of the election campaign.
Democratic Left is also under pressure, showing a slide from 5 to 2 per cent in Dublin over the past nine days.
Although Fine Gael has dropped a point to 22 per cent, its vote is still well ahead of the 1992 election figure and it should recover a few seats.
The Progressive Democrats join the Green Party in making the greatest progress in Dublin, particularly among middleclass voters. With a showing of 12 per cent support, it has gained three points and may win an extra seat or two.
The jump in the Progressive Democrats' support in the capital will more than compensate for Mary Harney's slide in the party leader stakes. From being in total command, she has fallen seven points to 57 per cent and trails both Bertie Ahern and John Bruton.
Last Wednesday, the percentage of "undecided" voters was measured at 14 per cent, a fall of two points on the previous week. But in spite of intensive campaigning, the overall state of the parties remained remarkably static. And satisfaction with the performance of the Government grew once again. The electorate may have decided that the fundamentals of the economy are so sound that a change of government will have no negative effect.
At the outset, the combined strength of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats gave them 51 per cent of the vote - a guaranteed working Dail majority. But their slippage to 49 per cent makes that more problematical.
Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left started 11 points behind in this election and, in spite of their best efforts, have clawed back only a point against the Opposition. With a combined strength of 39 per cent at this stage, and with less than a week to go, the Government parties would require a political miracle to be returned to power.