Coalition partners' satisfaction rating is 62%

The news could hardly be better for the Coalition partners

The news could hardly be better for the Coalition partners. A 62 per cent satisfaction rating with the Government, up four points in two weeks, and the largest section of the electorate opting for a repeat of the Fianna Fail/ Progressive Democrats plus Independents arrangement.

But it's too early to make definite plans for all-out electoral war in October. First, there is a need to test the temper of voters in the Tipperary South by-election at the end of this month.

If Fianna Fail shows a solid recovery from the drubbing it received in the constituency last time out, the political slide rules will be dusted off.

Last time, Fianna Fail was dogged by the Hugh O'Flaherty controversy and a drip-feed of sleaze from the tribunals at Dublin Castle. The combination buried its hopes and its candidate.

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This time out, with a new candidate in Michael Maguire and Fine Gael under pressure at the Moriarty tribunal, the party would hope to do considerably better.

In spite of its handicap, Fine Gael organisers are satisfied Tom Hayes will work magic for them and give Michael Noonan a victory in his first contest as party leader. The revived party vote has held at 24 per cent nationally, in spite of tribunal tribulations.

And the fact that the seat had been held by the late Theresa Ahern adds to their confidence.

But nothing should be taken for granted. Independent candidate Ms Phil Prendergast is hoping to repeat the upset caused last year by her colleague, Seamus Healy.

There is the prospect of a high-powered, anti-motorway candidate entering the fray. And the Labour Party has put forward a new candidate in Denis Landy. It's unexplored territory.

Fianna Fail has opted for the longest possible election campaign and made history by nominating a Saturday as polling day. It put distance between the European referendums and the by-election in order to maximise the use of its ministerial muscle in the constituency.

And a series of Yes votes under its belt will hardly hurt when it faces the electorate.

But while the outcome of the Tipperary South by-election will help shape political opinion over the summer months, the parties are looking to their long-term options. In that regard, unless the Fianna Fail juggernaut is derailed in a spectacular and unexpected fashion, everything will come up roses for Bertie Ahern.

Not only are voters highly satisfied with the performance of the Coalition Government, they are attracted to the notion of repeating the experiment next time out.

Some 38 per cent of those questioned - the great majority Fianna Fail supporters - favoured a repeat of the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats plus Independents Coalition. As a fall-back position, some 13 per cent would support a Fianna Fail/Labour Party government.

And, with Fianna Fail pulling 42 per cent of the popular vote, against 24 per cent for Fine Gael and 12 per cent for the Labour Party, it is hard to see the Taoiseach being denied another term in office.

Alternative government arrangements involving Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party attract 26 per cent support. And even when the Progressive Democrats are tacked on as a fourth party, overall support does not rise beyond 32 per cent.

When the voting strength of Sinn Fein and Independent TDs is added to the mix, the current public mood swings strongly in favour of the status quo.

There are, however, clouds on the political horizon. Fifty-five per cent of Dublin voters believe our rapid rate of economic growth is coming to an end. And while this pessimism is not shared by the rest of the country, the impact of any industrial slowdown is likely to manifest itself first in Dublin.

The Coalition Government is also vulnerable on law-and-order issues. A massive 82 per cent of those questioned believed that street violence had risen during the past four years, in spite of Government promises.

The perception of a deteriorating law-and-order situation was strongest outside of the capital.

Health and education issues also gave rise to voters' concern. On the positive side, close to three-quarters of those questioned supported a continuation of the social partnership model. And nearly two-thirds believed the system had succeeded in making this a fairer society.

The battleground for the coming general election is taking shape.