MILITARY ANALYSIS: Baghdad appears to be in the throes of envelopment by invading forces, writes Tom Clonan
Members of the US 3rd Infantry Division are reported to have secured an important river-crossing at Musayyib, to the south-west of Baghdad. This would bring US troops close to the strategically important Iraqi airbase at the Baghdad suburb of Iskandariyah.
It would also place them within striking distance of Saddam International Airport, around 12 miles from the city centre.
There have been simultaneous attacks to the south-east of the city, with the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force reported to have decimated elements of the Nebuchadnezzar Division of the Iraqi Republican Guard. US Special Forces are also believed to have carried out an audacious attack on Saddam Hussein's Thartha Palace in Tikrit, to the north of the city.
These developments speak of a city in the throes of envelopment by invading forces. The seizure of air bases and airports within the city limits of Baghdad would be very bad news for its defenders.
Once secure, these facilities would be used to ensure the constant refuelling and rearming of Apache and Cobra attack helicopters. These, in turn, would then be in a position to conduct round-the-clock conveyor-belt-style attacks on pin-pointed Special Republican Guard positions within the city. The facilities in question would initially be secured by US Special Forces and later secured by reinforcements ferried in by airborne units such as the US 101st Airborne Division.
Such seizures will likely be attempted in the coming days in order to establish a secure foothold within the capital city. From such an area, US Special Forces teams, including US Army Rangers and elite Marine Corps units, would probe deeper into the city. Some, in groups of eight, would patrol on foot into observation and listening posts close to Iraqi defensive positions.
Larger, heavily armed fighting patrols would move forward with Bradley armoured fighting vehicles and Abrams main battle tank support to engage Iraqi defensive positions, take prisoners and gather intelligence. In addition to ground incursions, snipers and forward observation teams consisting of artillery and air support, observers would be ferried into city-centre hides and strongholds by specially modified helicopters such as MH-60 Blackhawks and MH-47 Chinooks. The insertion of Special Forces by helicopter is normally accompanied by a deception plan consisting of sustained aerial bombardment and diversionary attacks in neighbouring streets and districts.
Acting as the eyes and ears of a much larger assault force, these troops would direct artillery and airstrikes and would identify avenues of approach for attacks on Iraqi command-and-control and defensive positions. The main assault formation, consisting of thousands of troops from the US 3rd and 4th Infantry Divisions along with members of the 1st Marine and 101st Airborne, would then advance toward the city centre along axes of advance cleared by Abrams tanks and D9 armoured bulldozers.
During all phases of the assault, the allies would maximise the use of close air support in order to destroy enemy strong-points and pockets of resistance.
Members of the 1st Marine advancing on the southern suburbs of Baghdad have reportedly been given the task of capturing Dr Rihab Taha's biological weapons facility at Salman Pak. The plant's existence was noted in 1995 following the defection to the West of one of Saddam's sons-in-law and is believed to contain biological weapons. US troops approaching such a facility would be preceded by biological weapons experts in Fox nuclear, biological and chemical reconnaissance vehicles.
In the event that biological agents were detected, the military would use sodium hypochlorite to eradicate harmful biological substances.
In assessing the contamination levels of suspected chemical weapon sites, the military use a broad range of chemical agent monitors and spectrometers in order to identify chemical hazards. A significant hazard for advancing troops in the coming days and weeks would be the disturbance or disruption of chemical and biological agent storage facilities by allied artillery or air attack.
A far more sinister threat would be posed by chemical or biological agent improvised explosive devices or booby-traps. In the case of chemical improvised devices, the effects on troops would be immediately apparent, with seizures, burns and choking episodes. In the case of a biological attack, with an interim period of infection and incubation, the effects might not emerge for several days.
In such a scenario, long after the damage had been inflicted on unsuspecting troops, the containment of a biological vector might prove very difficult.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer with experience in the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. He is a fellow of the US-based Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society. He lectures in the School of Media, DIT