VIEW FROM BRUSSELS:The instinct for political survival will ensure that there are few fireworks over Europe in any Cameron-led executive, writes ARTHUR BEESLEYin Brussels
AS THE Brussels machine pores over the result of the Westminster election, concern that a hung parliament might produce an inherently unstable government outweighs apprehension over David Cameron’s avowed euro-scepticism.
The assumption in Brussels is that the Tory leader will lead the next government, either a minority administration, or some form of partnership with Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg.
Although Gordon Brown’s promise of a referendum on electoral reform widens Clegg’s options, high-level officials in the EU capital believe Tory power is imminent.
In this context, the likelihood that Cameron would seek to secure an overall majority by calling an early election means he would be under pressure from the off to quickly prove himself as prime minister.
This reinforces the view that he would adopt a pragmatic European policy, with philosophical fist-fights over the reach of the EU enterprise being something of a luxury in the present economic malaise.
Given Britain’s feeble public finances, sources in the Brussels bureaucracy fear that any government Cameron leads may not be strong enough to execute tough corrective action.
This is all the more so given the waves of instability that are roiling the euro. Even though Britain remains outside the single currency, ensuring the recovery of a major EU member such as Britain is crucial for the prospects of the entire union.
“Obviously any form of instability in a member state government in the current circumstances is not very welcome. I think people would have preferred something more clear-cut,” said a senior European Commission official.
On the plus side, however, Cameron’s failure to secure the cherished overall majority could weaken the force of his own and his party’s euro-scepticism. He would, after all, have to impose very strict discipline over his MPs to hold any minority government together.
In this analysis, the survival instinct after 13 years in political no man’s land would ensure there are no fireworks over Europe.
The same could be true – albeit for a different reason – in any Clegg-Cameron alliance. The thinking here goes that Conservative euro-sceptics and Lib-Dem Europhiles would cancel each other out, leading to a moderate policy on Europe.
Coalition government would be new to the Tories, however, so European policy could well be a lightning rod for internecine tension.
Whatever the ultimate shape of any Tory administration, Cameron himself has sent a clear signal that he is not angling for a bust-up over Europe.
Indeed, the system in Brussels operates on the basis that nothing can be achieved without cultivating political allies.
With difficult battles looming over financial and hedge fund regulation – not to mention the negotiation of a seven-year budget for the Union – Cameron will need many friends.
This means he will have to move quickly to improve his relationship with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor. In EU politics, good ties with Berlin are essential.
But Dr Merkel was very displeased when he reversed the Tories out of the European People’s Party, the dominant faction in the European Parliament.
Good ties are especially important given the expansion in the parliament’s powers under the Lisbon Treaty, and the might of German MEPs. To avoid being marooned in Brussels, therefore, David needs Angela.
Crucial, too, would be the development of good relations with commission chief José Manuel Barroso. The two men have talked over the years – and most of Cameron’s shadow cabinet have been to Brussels for meetings with the relevant EU commissioners – but the true dynamic would be forged only as the new leader takes power.
For all that, the possibility remains that Labour MPs could remove Brown as leader in the hope of winning Clegg over.
This raises the prospect of a run at the party’s leadership by David Miliband, the foreign secretary.
At the apex of EU power, Miliband is seen as a man of clout and competence. Indeed, he would have been a shoo-in as EU foreign policy chief last autumn if he had wanted the job. Even if some in Brussels see appeal in a Miliband-Clegg alliance, Cameron still looks like he will take the day.
Brown’s exit looms, as does change in Britain’s often-difficult relationship with Europe.
“Brown is not engaged in Europe,” says a well-placed Brussels source.
“He sees domestic politics and international politics – and international politics as something that doesn’t concern Europe.”