European Diary: British prime minister Gordon Brown travels to Brussels this week on a charm offensive designed to persuade onlookers that he has a vision for Britain's place within Europe.
When he was chancellor, Brown rarely bothered to turn up at the council of ministers, and during his first nine months in power his engagement with the Union has been haphazard. His late appearance at the signing of the Reform Treaty in Lisbon and his failure to visit European Commission president José Manuel Barroso until now suggests Britain under Brown will remain what critics call a "semi-detached" member of the EU.
But just when British Europhiles were beginning to despair, up pops Tony Blair as French president Nicolas Sarkozy's preferred candidate for the top EU job: president of the European Council. Bookmaker Ladbrokes has placed odds of 12 to 1 on Blair landing the job, which is expected to be filled by January 2009 - if the treaty is ratified by then.
A British president of the European Council would for the first time give the British public someone to identify with the European project. It would also give Blair a second chance to transform Britain's relationship with the EU, after he failed during his 10 years as prime minister to overcome public scepticism about devolving sovereignty to Brussels.
Blair's personal leadership qualities, his international high profile and fluent French are all points in his favour for a job which must still be properly defined by member states.
"He is a remarkable man, the most pro-European of all the British," Mr Sarkozy said at the last European Council. "I don't know what his intentions are. But that one could think of him as a possibility [ as president of the European Council] is quite a smart move."
Since then the rumours have intensified. Last week people close to Blair said he would be interested in the job if it came with the right powers to make a difference. And in the Spectator British Europe minister Jim Murphy was enthusiastic about Blair.:"I think he would be great at it and I would be interested in helping him make it happen."
So far Brown has kept his own counsel about Blair's bid for the EU job, although he will face a deluge of questions on the topic this week from European journalists.
But given his difficult relationship with Blair, his support is not yet a given, a point that former Tory leader William Hague exploited recently in a witty speech to the House of Commons suggesting to general hilarity in the House the prime minister must view with horror ". . .the awful moment when the motorcade of the president of Europe sweeps into Downing Street. The gritted teeth and bitten nails. The prime minister emerging from it all with a smile of intolerable anguish. The choking sensation as the words 'Mr President' are forced from him, and then once in the Cabinet room the melodrama of 'when will you hand over to me?' all over again."
Blair also faces opposition over his support for the US invasion of Iraq. The Socialist Group in the European Parliament is likely to oppose his appointment, and even though the job remains the gift of the 27 EU heads of state, in reality it will be part of a wider carve-up of EU jobs (European Commission president, high representative for foreign affairs and president of the European Parliament) between Europe's political groups.
Concerned members of the public are also beginning to mobilise against Blair. Paris-based investment banker Jérôme Guillet recently set up a website (www.stopblair.eu) that is hosting a petition aimed at preventing the former British prime minister getting the job.
"We don't think that the man who supported the catastrophic invasion and occupation of Iraq against the will of the majority of the population of both his own country and the rest of Europe, who refused to even try to bring the UK into the eurozone, or who made every effort to keep the European charter of fundamental rights from applying in the UK, should have any responsibility at the EU level, let alone a position that is likely to be seen as the figurehead of the European Union," Mr Guillet told The Irish Times.
Britain's opt-outs from EU decision-making in the field of justice and from the rights charter may be overlooked. But its decision not to adopt the euro or join Schengen could damage Blair's candidacy, according to French Europe minister Jean-Pierre Jouyet.
So despite the acres of newsprint devoted to Blair's bid to be European president, the smart money still lies on Luxembourg's prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker or a compromise candidate such as Denmark's Anders Fogh Rasmussen or even Bertie Ahern. (The latter embarks on a trip to Poland, Austria and Slovenia next week - could it be to test the water for a candidacy?)
A Blair failure will disappoint Britain's Europhiles but one suspects Brown will shed few tears if his bid to become EU president fails spectacularly in the months ahead.