Bosnian crisis sparks fears of a return to violence

BOSNIA’S CHIEF international envoy says it is facing its worst crisis since the 1992-1995 war, echoing fears from Balkan experts that chronic political deadlock could spark a return to violence.

Seven months after a general election, Bosnia is still without a government due to bitter disputes between Muslims who favour stronger federal institutions, Serbs who refuse to give up any autonomy or strengthen the central government in Sarajevo, and Croat nationalists who are demanding more say in their own affairs.

The crisis has been deepened by the decision of the Bosnian-Serb region, Republika Srpska, to hold a referendum next month on whether to recognise the authority of Bosnia’s national court in Sarajevo and the decisions made by the powerful “international representative”, Valentin Inzko.

He told the United Nations Security Council on Monday that Republika Srpska was taking “concrete actions which represent the most serious violation of the [Bosnian] peace agreement that we have seen since the agreement was signed.”

“The entire international community must take the deteriorating situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina very seriously,” Mr Inzko added. “Further erosion of the state, its institutions and the rule of law will push Bosnia and Herzegovina into deeper crisis and instability. This could also have negative consequences for the entire region.” Mr Inzko’s words chimed with a report issued last week by the International Crisis Group, which said Bosnia was facing “its worst crisis since war ended in 1995”. “Violence is probably not imminent, but there is a real prospect of it in the near future unless all sides pull away from the downward cycle of their maximalist positions,” the group warned.

Bosnia’s communities are still mired in mistrust 16 years after a war that killed more than 100,000 people.

Peace was established by the Dayton Accords, which divided Bosnia into two “entities”, Republika Srpska and the Muslim-Croat Federation, each with its own parliament and government, and linked by loose central institutions in which all three communities are represented.

But while the majority of Muslims favour a stronger federal Bosnia – backed by Western powers which say this is the only way for the country to join the European Union – Republika Srpska’s leaders say they would rather bid for outright independence than cede powers to Sarajevo.

And now Croatian nationalist parties, angry at being excluded from the new local government in the Muslim-Croat Federation, are demanding their own “entity” separate from the Muslims.

Mr Inzko has threatened to use an executive decree to ban the Serb referendum on the national court and on his own role, despite fears that this may inflame tension in Republika Srpska, where many people see international and federal institutions as anti-Serb.

Republika Srpska, with diplomatic support from Russia, says the referendum does not threaten Dayton and that Mr Inzko and his predecessors have abused their authority.

“The conflict is starting to tear apart state institutions, and it can threaten the state itself,” said the crisis group’s Marko Prelec.