Bill secure as Irish rainmaker

We don't need rainmakers on this island: the weather's bad enough as it is, thank you

We don't need rainmakers on this island: the weather's bad enough as it is, thank you. But in the metaphorical sense of the word, namely, someone who can bring about a necessary and long-desired outcome, President Clinton was welcomed by most people, North and South.

Rainmaker is a shamanistic term from popular mythology about the Native American tribes: more medicine man than spindoctor. Several English commentators preferred to use a more scientific term about the President's role in the peace process. They described him as a catalyst, someone who generates chemical interaction between other politicians and parties.

It was clear at the presidential gig in Belfast's Waterfront Hall on Thursday morning that the chemistry between David Trimble and Gerry Adams needs a lot of work, at least on the Trimble side. The UUP leader was blunt and direct as, staring down at the Sinn Fein leader sitting at the front of the hall, he outlined his negative view of the republican movement's past and the strict conditions he intends to impose on any future relationship. Adams has not related his own feelings as he sat there, but as someone who takes the long view and looks at the "big picture" (his own phrase) he must know that Trimble was addressing his own party and community rather than the Waterfront audience, that a bilateral meeting soon is a virtual certainty and that the chances both of them will be in government within months are better than 50-50.

The normally supportive News Letter rapped Trimble on the knuckles for giving a party-political speech on an occasion where the mien of a statesman was required: "This confrontational demeanour was more suited to a UUP rally in the Ulster Hall."

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By the time of the Armagh rally later in the evening, Trimble had recovered the touch he showed in, for example, his decision to attend the funerals of the bomb victims in Buncrana and his general conduct in the wake of the Omagh tragedy.

The President, too, was back to his old self. He seems to draw sustenance from interaction with ordinary people and the lacklustre, jet-lagged politician working his way through a prepared script at the Waterfront gave way to the vibrant, almost inspiring orator on the Mall in Armagh.

A visit which had failed to stir the blood in advance suddenly came to life. The Armagh speech was timed to coincide with peak viewing on local television: the White House would have seen to that, probably with advice from the Northern Ireland Office and Downing Street. Its impact and the effect of the President's sensitively-handled encounter with the relatives of the Omagh victims were such that one could not quarrel with the leader-writer in the Times who wrote: "Bill Clinton is probably more influential in Northern Ireland than in North Carolina."

Whatever about the vibes between Trimble and Adams, the chemistry between Clinton and Tony Blair could hardly be better. The Prime Minister's face lit up into the broadest possible grin when he greeted the President at the Waterfront and Blair's tributes to Clinton in his speech were clearly well-meant and sincere. It is understood that during the day, both President and Prime Minister made clear to Trimble that, in the wake of recent gestures from Sinn Fein, the ball was in his court now.

Sources close to Trimble say he is fascinated by the Blair project: the transformation of the Labour Party, the skilled use of the media, the whole flair that the Prime Minister has displayed for what his supporters call "modernisation".

When the history-books record this period, the political relationship - "chemistry" if you like - between Blair and Trimble will be seen as crucial to the success of the process. Had he not trusted Blair to the extent that he did, Trimble would never have taken the risks involved in securing the Belfast Agreement.

The chemistry between Trimble and the Deputy First Minister, Seamus Mallon, also appears to be very good, although insiders say Mallon is "driving" the relationship. After Trimble's Waterfront performance, a senior SDLP member wailed: "How is Seamus going to do business with this man?" But those who know him best say that, offstage, Trimble is "amazingly relaxed". When the historians record this period of the Clinton presidency, Ireland may be lucky to get a footnote from some of them. But the New York Daily News columnist, Jim Dwyer, encapsulated the difference between Clinton and the others with an anecdote about an encounter 20 years ago between an IrishAmerican activist and Jimmy Carter's security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski.

Asked when the Carter administration was going to take an interest in Northern Ireland, Brzezinski replied that it did not involve any US security or economic interests, a few hundred people a year were being killed and there were much bigger fish to fry. That story explains why, no matter what his political fate, there will always be pockets of this tiny, long-suffering region where William Jefferson Clinton will be remembered for his role as catalyst, rainmaker, peacemaker.