ANALYSIS:US president has no concrete plan to break the deadlock between Israel and Palestine
PRESIDENT BARACK Obama’s belated Arab Spring speech spelling out US policy on the turmoil in the region could never make up for the disappointment and disillusionment felt over his failure to deliver on the promises of his June 2009 address in Cairo.
Furthermore, two recent negative developments set the stage for yesterday’s speech: the imposition of financial sanctions on Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and the resignation of Obama’s peacemaker, George Mitchell. Many Arabs accuse Obama of targeting the Assad regime for cracking down on semi-violent protests but turning a blind eye to the actions of the rulers of Bahrain – who with the aid of troops and police from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – have crushed peaceful protests by the majority Shia population of the kingdom.
Arabs are also likely to criticise Obama’s failure to condemn Israel for killing 15 Palestinians who attempted to cross Lebanese and Syrian ceasefire lines last Sunday. The “Arab street” – derided for decades but now celebrated as a democratic force – abhors double standards.
Arabs, particularly Palestinians, once viewed the combination of Obama – who spoke in Cairo of Palestinian suffering and aspirations – and Mitchell, a successful negotiator in Northern Ireland, as the last chance for Arab-Israeli peace. Their job was to bring forth a Palestinian state and end Israel’s occupation of the Syrian Golan heights.
Once these Herculean tasks had been performed to Arab satisfaction, Arab governments were prepared to normalise relations with Israel.
But the scenario sketched out by Obama in Cairo never reached the regional stage and Mitchell reportedly stood down because the White House was not prepared to put forward another initiative.
Israel refused to halt settlement expansion in the areas Palestinians demand for their state and Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas rejected negotiations until the settlement drive was frozen.
Obama tried and failed to break the deadlock and, during yesterday’s speech, made no concrete proposals. Neither did he announce a high-profile facilitator to replace Mitchell.
He did, however, warn that talks without a result cannot continue and set out his vision of a two-state Palestinian-Israeli deal. He spoke of the land-for-peace formula and Israeli withdrawal from occupied Palestinian territory, and specified that the future borders between Palestine and Israel should be based on the ceasefire lines of 1967 with mutually agreed land swaps. This amounted to a reversion to the long-standing international plan for a deal which his administration seemed to have abandoned some months ago.
His pledge to cancel $1 billion in Egypt’s debts, to provide another $1 billion in loan guarantees for Egyptian development and to encourage international lenders to launch a comprehensive plan to aid Egypt and Tunisia is likely to be seen as too modest to address the task of lifting millions out of poverty and despair.
Obama spoke of Arab states winning independence half a century ago but observed that Arab individuals began their struggle for self-determination and dignity only this spring. He made it clear they had a long way to go and many challenges to face but did not verbally press remnants of the ousted regimes in Tunisia or Egypt – more friends – with the aim of securing an early, smooth transition to democracy.
* Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu said yesterday Israel would object to any withdrawal to “indefensible” borders, adding that he expected Washington to allow it to keep major settlement blocs in any peace deal. As he left for Washington Mr Netanyahu said “the viability of a Palestinian state cannot come at the expense of Israel’s existence”.