After a lacklustre start, the presidential campaign has come to life. In fact, one commentator has described the lead-up to the election on October 30th as nastier than any general election. Another said it was squalid and increasingly divisive.
Yet the five candidates continue to smile at one another, giving the impression that the political campaign being conducted at the same time is positioned at a different and more aggressive level.
The opinion poll of 11 days ago showed Mary McAleese in first place, 10 points ahead of Mary Banotti, an increase among the undecideds and a noticeable drop in support for Adi Roche.
Today's survey, conducted on October 22nd, shows that several limited but nevertheless notable movements have taken place which could provide campaign strategists with information for final action.
With one week remaining, the undecided group has tightened up considerably. At 13 per cent it is now four points below the level of almost two weeks ago.
In addition, Mary McAleese and Mary Banotti have increased their support, the former by three points to 42 per cent, and the secondplaced candidate by four points to 33 per cent.
Mary Banotti, therefore, has reduced the gap by one point to 9 per cent. And in spite of considerable adverse media attention, Mary McAleese has consolidated her position: 42 per cent, her highest level in the campaign so far.
Support for Adi Roche continues to decline, and her previous 16 points have dropped to 9 per cent. She now shares fourth place with Dana. Derek Nally has 6 per cent. The current and previous net figures (excluding undecided) are:
Sept Oct Oct
27th 11th 22nd % % %
M. McAleese - 40 39 42
A. M. Banotti - 27 29 33
A. Roche - 25 16 9
R. Scallon (Dana) - 8 8 9
D. Nally - - 9 6
The proportions undecided at each of the three polls were:
Sept Oct Oct
27th 11th 22nd % % %
Undecided - 13 17 13
Although Fine Gael and Fianna Fail voters are now considerably more supportive of Mary Banotti and Mary McAleese, with figures of 61 per cent and 58 per cent respectively, the phenomenon of cross-party support remains. Almost a fifth of Fianna Fail voters favour the Fine Gael candidate, and a corresponding one-seventh of Fine Gael supporters intend to vote for Mary McAleese.
Furthermore, less than a third of Labour members align themselves with Adi Roche. A similar number support Mary Banotti and one in four back Mary McAleese. Fewer than one in three PD supporters intend voting for Mary McAleese.
Mary McAleese continues to attract a higher volume of second-preference transfers from the remaining three candidates than does Mary Banotti.
Had the election been held last Wednesday, the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats candidate would have been elected on the fourth count, with Derek Nally the first to be eliminated.
The overall conclusion from today's figures is that Mary McAleese will almost certainly head the poll next Thursday. She remains favourite for President. Her 42 per cent is satisfactory primarily because she commands a high level of potential transfers.
But remember the 1990 election when the late Brian Lenihan obtained 44 per cent of first-preference votes but received only 13 per cent of Austin Currie's transfers. He was defeated by Mary Robinson on the second count, 53 per cent/47 per cent.
Today's figures taken through to the fourth count on second preferences only would see Mary McAleese elected. She appears to have weathered the storm satisfactorily.
A further message for the politicians is that four voters in every five believe the publicity surrounding the candidacy of Mary McAleese either made no difference to their voting intentions or encouraged them to vote for her. Ninety-seven per cent of those who intend to vote for the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats candidate are in either of these categories.
But two further factors must be taken into account. The first relates to Fianna Fail's tendency to deliver fewer first preferences in elections than campaign opinion polls might indicate. This arose in 1992 and 1997 when the party obtained 39 per cent in each instance. Should this hold for the presidential election, it is possible that Mary McAleese could obtain fewer first preferences than polls suggest.
The second point relates to the fact that, although Mary McAleese remains ahead of Mary Banotti, the rate of growing support for Ms Banotti is considerably greater than for McAleese.
These factors suggest the poll outcome may be closer than is indicated.
A final interesting aspect of the survey is that satisfaction ratings for all party leaders, both Government and Opposition, have dropped by about six points (Mr Bruton by considerably more) in the three weeks since the first presidential poll.
There may well be a coded message here, i.e. that the electorate is not generally impressed with the introduction of the political dimension in the campaign, and the continuing evidence of crossparty support could back this theory.