Steady spread from the Far East means it is only a matter of 'when' rather than 'if' the virus arrives in Ireland, writes Dr Patrick Wall
The H5N1 strain of avian influenza does not pose a threat to humans in its present form. Ten years have passed since this strain of the flu virus appeared in China. Yet there have been only 192 human cases to date and 109 deaths, all of people working closely with ill poultry.
The avian flu virus does pose a threat to the health of commercial and wild birds and has the potential to disrupt trade. The steady spread from the Far East means that it is only a matter of "when" rather than "if" the virus arrives in Ireland.
Yesterday's confirmation that the swan which died in Scotland tested positive for the deadly H5N1 strain of the virus, and news that tests for avian flu are being carried out on dead swans in Antrim, demonstrates that it is coming our direction. The Department of Agriculture and Food has detailed plans to minimise the spread in poultry and the impact to trade.
There is no risk of contracting bird flu in Ireland from eating chicken. The advice to properly cook your chicken has always existed to avoid contracting salmonella or campylobacter, two food poisoning bugs.
The possibility of the virus mutating and developing the ability to pass from human to human exists. But the probability of this happening is low. There is not a great deal the average member of the public can do to hedge against such an event.
Since the first outbreaks of the H5N1 strain were identified in Asia over 155 million birds have been culled by workers with varying degrees of personal protection equipment. Yet not one case of avian flu has occurred in workers engaged in the culls.
Furthermore, we now have new vaccine technology and antiviral drugs which previously did not exist during the previous human flu pandemics.
There once was a time that exaggerating risk was left to the tabloid newspapers, but of late researchers desperate to secure funds often take a bit of poetic licence with quantifying the risk , "no risk - no funds."
The tendency toward panic reactions in response to catastrophic risks is something that should concern those involved in both industry and public health. Often the risk management response is in proportion to the media coverage rather than the risk to human health.
Policy-makers and regulators are not consistent in how they address risk and equal risk in society is not treated with equal degrees of intervention.
There is very little point in the average member of the public being overly concerned about the current developments.
It is extremely unlikely that someone will contract bird flu in an Irish context. However deaths and injuries on the roads, disease related to poor diets or inappropriate alcohol consumption are more likely to impact on us, or our families.
There are many similar disasters that could befall the human race and these are disasters that should be debated.
But exaggerated concern over such risks should not be allowed to distract individuals from taking proper precautions for their own health and their families health over risks that impact on them on a daily basis.
Dr Patrick Wall is Associate Professor of Public Health, School of Public Health and Population Sciences in UCD.