Anxiously awaiting a response from loyalists

Northern Ireland was tense last night in areas where the UDA and theLVF have personnel and power

Northern Ireland was tense last night in areas where the UDA and theLVF have personnel and power. More RUC patrols were evident. The British army was on alert. And with good reason.

The concern is that the UDA and LVF could respond speedily and violently to the decision by the Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, to acknowledge what the notorious dogs in the Northern streets already realise: that the ceasefires of these groups are spurious and an affront.

In recent weeks, Dr Reid has been expressing deep frustration to his senior officials and security advisers. How come, he demanded to know, the police and British army generally could suppress the activities of the "Real IRA" and Continuity IRA while the UDA in particular but other loyalists were able to wage a vicious and sustained campaign of sectarian violence?

Not only was the UDA treating with derision calls for it to maintain its utterly suspect ceasefire, but even when Dr Reid issued an ultimatum two weeks ago, UDA chiefs contemptuously responded by instructing the Northern Secretary that they would not be subject to his diktats.

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On that same night, the LVF murdered Sunday World journalist Martin O'Hagan. It was almost as if these paramilitaries believed they could act with total impunity while at the same time cocking a snook at the authorities.

The violence on the Shankill on Thursday night was clearly orchestrated by the UDA, Dr Reid was informed by his security people. It was still involved in planning and had no intention of scaling down its sectarian attacks in Belfast and several other parts of the North.

Yesterday, the Northern Secretary's patience finally ran out. With advice and support from the RUC chief constable Sir Ronnie Flanagan he "specified" the UDA - which on this date seven years ago declared its ceasefire - and the LVF, ruling that they were no longer observing their cessations.

Dr Reid can impose a number of sanctions against the UDA and LVF but they are far from draconian. Early released UDA or LVF members who are believed to still support these organisations can be returned to prison; others who are determined to be active in these organisations can, on the word of a senior police officer and with some corroborative evidence, be jailed; anyone who goes on trial for pre-Belfast Agreement offences will not be entitled to early release if convicted.

Dr Reid and Sir Ronnie know the dangers of a vicious loyalist backlash but they felt they had no other option. A number of unionist politicians such as Mr Jeffrey Donaldson and Mr Nigel Dodds complained that the IRA should also be specified, but the counter security argument was that relative to what the loyalists have been doing in recent months, the IRA has maintained a fair degree of discipline. This point was made by Dr Reid last night.

In contrast in the past six months, the UDA murdered at least three people; it was involved in more than 200 blast- and pipe-bomb attacks on Catholics this year and only recently fired a blast bomb as young Catholic girls were going to Holy Cross school; it orchestrated other attacks in towns such as Coleraine, in Co Derry and Larne and in other parts of Antrim.

Much of the violence was directed by the UDA's C Company on the Shankill, which was headed by Johnny Adair, reimprisoned by the Northern Secretary last year. Within the UDA generally, it is understood that its membership is divided roughly 50-50 between those who support and oppose its ceasefire.

The LVF has also been involved in regular attacks. It has engaged in a long-running violent feud with the UVF - which similar to the IRA has a relatively tight central discipline - and murdered Mr O'Hagan because he had exposed its violence and drug-dealings.

One senior Northern Ireland Office official explained the Northern Secretary's dilemma thus: "This was a difficult decision for Dr Reid. He had to weigh up whether it would do more harm than good. But in effect it does not matter because the UDA and LVF have demonstrated that they are totally wedded to violence. So why carry on with the charade of saying they are still on ceasefire when that is not having any benefit."

That argument holds but only up to a point. There is a danger the paramilitaries will feel this decision has "let off the leash completely", as one informed security source said last night. They were already off the leash but the anxiety is that they will intensify their actions.

There was consensus last night that Dr Reid, to maintain some credibility in the political process, had no option but to issue his declaration against the UDA and LVF. But that doesn't ease the fears.